The honest answer is that nobody outside government knows, but the legislated position is clear enough to plan around.
Solar: legislated end
The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme runs to 31 December 2030. The deeming period, the number of years of generation you are paid for upfront, falls by one year each January: 5 years for 2026, 4 for 2027, and 1 year for 2030. A system installed in 2030 earns about a fifth of the certificates of the same system in 2026. See the deeming period guide and what changes in January 2027.
Example: a 6.6 kW system in zone 3 (rating 1.382) creates about 6.6 x 1.382 x 5 = 45 STCs in 2026, around $1,700 to $1,800 at $38 to $40, and about 36 STCs in 2027. In 2030 it would be about 9.
Batteries: stepping down
The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program began on 1 July 2025. The factor is 6.8 at the time of writing, stepping down to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027, and continuing down to 2030. Tiers since 1 May 2026 pay the first 14 kWh at 100% of the factor, 14 to 28 kWh at 60% and 28 to 50 kWh at 15%. The program budget has been reported as expanded from $2.3 billion to $7.2 billion, but money does not change the legislated end date. See the program’s end date and funding explained.
Will something replace it?
Policy might change. The government could extend, reshape or replace support, and state programs and VPP incentives will continue to vary. The sensible stance is to treat any post-2030 support as unannounced and unbudgeted. Our wind-down hub tracks the changes.
What would an extension look like
If government did extend support, it might reshape it rather than keep the same mechanism, for example by changing which technologies are covered, the deeming approach or the funding source. None of that is known, so any business plan that needs a rebate after 2030 is speculation. The practical position is to build margin that survives without it and treat any extension as a bonus.
What this means for you
Run your numbers at today’s value and at next year’s, using the STC calculator and battery STC calculator. For solar installers, the scheme’s decline means a steady drop in certificate income per job, so margin on the install itself matters more every year. Energy Merchants lists its rates on pricing, and STC trading explains how certificates are sold. For the longer view, read will the solar rebate end in 2030 and battery STCs.