There is no cliff where the rebate vanishes overnight. The rebate fades. Each year the number of certificates per kWh falls, and the scheme that creates them ends on 31 December 2030.
The step-down
The factor is 6.8 for 2026 installs and 5.7 from 1 January 2027 and 5.2 from 1 July 2027, and it keeps stepping down every six months. The tiered structure that began on 1 May 2026 pays less on batteries above 14 kWh. By the time the scheme ends in 2030 the rebate will be much smaller than it is today. Check the Clean Energy Regulator for the factor that applies in a given year.
What homeowners should watch
- The calendar year. Each 1 January brings a smaller factor.
- The install date. It is the date the battery is commissioned, not the date you pay a deposit.
- Policy changes. The December 2025 expansion shows the government can alter the program. Treat anything beyond the current regulation as uncertain.
What a later install costs you
Assuming certificate prices stay near $38 to $40, a 14 kWh battery earns about $3,700 in 2026 and about $3,100 in 2027. Each further year trims the discount again. Hardware prices have been falling, which may offset some of it, but nobody can promise that.
State schemes and VPP incentives may add to your return. See the NSW VPP incentive and the WA battery scheme.
A planning note for installers and buyers
Whether you are selling or buying, treat each January as a repricing date. The factor, the tiers and the market price can all move, and a quote from last year is not a quote this year. Keep the factor schedule on your phone, and update any marketing that mentions a particular rebate amount.
What this means for you
Plan a battery around your own usage and bills first, and use the factor schedule to pick the timing. See the battery STC pillar for how it works and how it works for how installers turn the certificates into your discount. For the wider scheme end date, read when the STC scheme ends.