The end date is legislated: 31 December 2030. Any system commissioned after that does not create STCs under the small-scale scheme. At the time of writing, there is no announced change to the date.
What the lead-up looks like
The rebate does not stay at its present level until 2030. For a 6.6 kW system in zone 3 the number of certificates is about 45 in 2026, 36 in 2027, 27 in 2028, 18 in 2029 and 9 in 2030. At a price around $38 to $40, the rebate in 2029 is roughly $700 and in 2030 roughly $350. In other words, by the final year the rebate is small relative to the cost of a system.
What replaces it
Nothing national has been announced that replaces the rebate for solar panels. Households will rely on bill savings, feed-in tariffs where they exist and any state schemes. The market will also see a tail of work in batteries, while the federal battery program has its own factor schedule through 2030.
What homeowners should do with this
You do not have to rush, but you should know the cost of waiting. A year of delay costs around $330 in rebate on the example above in 2027, and more in dollar terms in the early years. Compare it with the expected change in system prices and the savings you give up by waiting. See should I install now or wait.
If you are thinking of buying
Do not let the end date alone drive the choice. A system that suits your roof and usage will still deliver savings after the rebate is gone. A system bought only for the rebate may not. Run the sum with and without the rebate to see how sensitive your payback is to it.
What this means for you
Use the date and the schedule, then check the real quotes. Our STC trading pillar explains the scheme from the installer side, the deeming period resource lists the figures, and when the scheme ends covers the technical side.