Installers and customers both ask this question, usually hoping the answer is yes. The honest answer is that nobody can promise it, and the current law says no.
What the law says now
The small-scale scheme is legislated to end on 31 December 2030, with the solar deeming period stepping down to 1 year in 2030. That has been the design since 2011: a phase-down, not a cliff, and then the end. A longer scheme needs the Parliament, or at least the Minister and regulations, to change the arrangements.
Why people expect an extension
The scheme has been amended repeatedly. In 2025 batteries were folded in through the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, with the budget later reported to have grown from $2.3bn to $7.2bn. From 1 October 2026 the scheme reaches mid-scale solar, systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW, with a fixed five-year deeming period (mid-scale solar STCs). Those moves show the scheme can be reshaped. They did not move the end date.
Why it may not be extended
STCs are paid for by retailers and, ultimately, electricity customers. Rooftop solar is now mainstream and the original aim of the scheme, getting households onto solar, is largely achieved. Policy attention has shifted to batteries, electrification and the grid. Any extension would have to justify the cost against those priorities.
What this means for installers
Do not build a business plan on an extension. Plan on:
- The fixed fall. Deeming steps down each January; see the schedule.
- Batteries and mid-scale. These are where volume is growing, though their factors also step down towards 2030.
- A post-2030 offer. Service, upgrades, batteries and monitoring, not only upfront certificates.
If an extension is announced, we will update this page. Meanwhile, the sensible assumption for customers is that today’s STC discount is the best they will see. See when the STC scheme ends and what happens after 2030.
Read the deeming period pillar, check rates on pricing, and start trading.