Two numbers get mixed up in installer conversations. One is 33,000 GWh. The other is 82%. They measure different things and have different statuses, and neither alters the STC discount you quote this month.
33,000 GWh: the legislated large-scale target
The Renewable Energy Target (RET) set a goal of 33,000 GWh of additional renewable generation by 2020, kept as a fixed annual amount to 2030. That is the large-scale part, delivered by LGCs. It was met in full: the pipeline of wind and solar farms exceeded it, and the market is now oversupplied. This is why LGC spot has been roughly $6 to $9 in September 2026 after a low near $4 in February. The obligation is satisfied, so extra supply only competes for the same demand. See what the forward curve implies to 2030.
The RET also contains the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), which has no cap. Retailers must surrender all STCs created, at the percentage the CER sets (reported 11.67% for 2026). The SRES ends on 31 December 2030.
82% by 2030: a government target
The federal government has a target for renewables to supply 82% of electricity in the National Electricity Market by 2030. It is a policy goal, not a certificate scheme, and it is pursued through other instruments such as the Capacity Investment Scheme, state programs and grid investment. Progress is reported in AEMO’s quarterly updates and government statements. Recent reporting puts the renewable share well short of 82%, with the gap expected to be closed by new wind, solar and storage. Check the latest AEMO report rather than quoting a number you read months ago.
Why installers should care
- Certificates do not depend on the 82% goal. STCs still come from deeming and the SRES, and the deeming period shortens every year to 2030.
- Storage is the focus. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program, with its budget expanded from $2.3bn to $7.2bn (as reported), is a way to add storage at the household level.
- Mid-scale solar is being folded in. From 1 October 2026 systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW create STCs: see mid-scale solar STCs.
- 2030 is the horizon. See what happens when the scheme ends and what happens to STC traders after the scheme ends.
What this means for installers
Plan around the dates that move your revenue: the deeming period (5 years for 2026, 4 for 2027) and the battery factor steps (6.8 now, 5.7 on 1 January 2027, 5.2 on 1 July 2027). The politics of 82% can shift state and federal programs, but the legislated settings above are what you can quote. See the scheme changes overview, who funds the RET and STC pricing.