The small-scale renewable energy scheme, which creates small-scale technology certificates for solar panels, solar hot water, heat pumps and now home batteries, has a legislated end of 31 December 2030.
What ends and what does not
New solar installations after 2030 will not create STCs. Certificates that have already been created can still be sold and surrendered, so there will be a tail of trading after the end date. Other schemes, such as state certificate programs and the large-scale scheme, run to their own timelines. The large-scale scheme and its LGCs are separate, with prices at roughly $6 to $9 in September 2026.
The glide path
The scheme declines gradually rather than stopping abruptly. For solar, the deeming period is 5 years in 2026, 4 in 2027, 3 in 2028, 2 in 2029 and 1 in 2030. For batteries, the factor is 6.8 at the time of writing, 5.7 from 1 January 2027 and 5.2 from 1 July 2027, and keeps falling in later years.
What it means for installers
Volumes of certificates per job fall year by year, so revenue per install from STCs falls too. Installers should think about cash flow, margins on installs without a large rebate, and diversification into batteries, hot water, heat pumps and state schemes such as VEECs in Victoria, which run on their own rules. See our VEEC trading page and hot water STC page.
Practical steps for installers
Review contracts that extend beyond 2030, particularly any fixed-rate or fixed-volume arrangements with traders. Check how a trader intends to handle certificates created late in 2030 and whether they will keep operating afterwards. Diversify into VEECs, hot water and heat pump work where state schemes continue.
What this means for you
Installers should run an STC revenue forecast through to 2030 and reprice each January. Homeowners should check the install date against the deeming period. See the schedule by year, the STC trading pillar, how it works and what an STC is worth.