The forward curve for LGCs is the set of prices that brokers quote for delivering certificates in future calendar years. It is a useful read on market sentiment and a poor guide to what you will actually be paid, so it needs careful handling in a business case.
Where the curve starts
LGC spot is oversupplied and cheap in 2026. It was roughly $11 at the start of Q4 2025, fell to a low near $4 in February 2026 and has been about $6 to $9 in September 2026. Do not read any of those numbers as the current price: check a live source on the day. Forward quotes follow the same story: low and fairly flat, because more certificates are being created than the large-scale target needs.
Why the curve is shaped this way
- The target is met. The large-scale part of the Renewable Energy Target was filled well before 2030, so retailer demand is a fixed, and now fully supplied, quantity. See whether the 33,000 GWh target is met.
- Banking and carry. LGCs created now can be surrendered later, so holders can wait. That flattens the curve.
- The end date. The RET legislation runs to 2030 with no scheduled extension. Past that date, voluntary demand and the Guarantee of Origin scheme may carry some value: see LGCs after 2030.
- Supply policy. Mid-scale solar of 100 kW to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 creates STCs, not LGCs, which trims some future LGC supply at the margin. Details are on the mid-scale solar STC page.
How to use a forward price
If you own a power station you can lock revenue by selling LGCs forward, which gives cash-flow certainty but means giving up any upside. Treat the quote as an indicative bid: the price you receive depends on volume, delivery year, the buyer’s credit and whether the certificates are already created. A forward sale also carries delivery risk: if your plant generates less than expected, you must still deliver.
For an investment case, run three scenarios: today’s spot, a lower figure and zero value from 2031. Plenty of mid-scale projects only work if LGCs are treated as upside, not base revenue.
What this means for owners and installers
If you build commercial solar above 1 MW, LGC revenue is still part of the model but a thin one. Between 100 kW and 1 MW, STCs from 1 October 2026 give an up-front, fixed-period alternative: see LGC vs STC for 100 kW. For background on where prices have been, read LGC price history and the LGC oversupply piece. For other certificate markets, see VEEC trading and pricing.