The SRES end date is written into the legislation: 31 December 2030. Every year the deeming period falls by one, with 5 years for 2026 installs, 4 for 2027 and down to 1 in 2030, so the income per system shrinks before the end. For installers, the question is not just the date but who will still be standing when you want to be paid.
The wind-down in practice
- Volume peaks, then shrinks. Installers often bring forward jobs before each January step, so STC creation can bunch before a drop. Shortening deeming means fewer STCs per job each year.
- The tail. An STC must be created within 12 months of installation, so claims for 2030 installs can be lodged into 2031. Registered agents and traders also have audit and clawback tails: the CER can look back at past claims, so keep records. See how long to keep STC records.
- Final price behaviour. With the obligation ending, the Clearing House mechanism and buyers’ needs shift, and price risk rises in the last year. We would not forecast it.
What traders do next
Reputable traders already work in more than one certificate market, and that is the sensible hedge:
- VEECs in Victoria, a long-running scheme with a separate timeline. See VEEC trading.
- ESCs and PRCs in NSW. See NSW ESS and PDRS.
- Batteries. The battery program factor steps down to 2030.
- Mid-scale solar. From 1 October 2026, systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW create STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period: see mid-scale solar STCs.
- Whatever replaces SRES. Policy discussions on a successor are ongoing. Do not assume one.
How to choose a trader for the long run
Look at track record, other certificate lines and financial stability, not just rate. Ask how long they have traded, how they handle audits and clawbacks, and whether they publish rates. Energy Merchants is backed by REC Traders, which has traded since 2004 and is a Smart Energy Council member. Our trader checklist lists the questions to ask.
What this means for installers
Build a plan now: use the next four years to bank cash, diversify into batteries, hot water and mid-scale work, and keep a clean paper trail. See what happens to installers when the scheme ends, the 2030 end date and the partner program. Check live rates on pricing.