The Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) required retailers to buy a fixed volume of renewable generation each year, 33,000 GWh, through to 2030. LGCs are the certificates retailers surrender to prove it. See the glossary entry on the RET.
What happens at the end
The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act sets the scheme to end in 2030. Liable entities surrender certificates for their 2030 liability in early 2031, after which there is no compulsory demand for new LGCs. At the time of writing, no extension has been legislated. The Clean Energy Regulator publishes details of the wind-down, including deadlines for creating and surrendering certificates; check that guidance for exact dates.
Why the market is already weak
The target has been met on the supply side. LGCs are oversupplied: they were about $11 at the start of Q4 2025, fell to a low near $4 in February 2026 and were roughly $6 to $9 in September 2026. A fixed target and a large pipeline of generation have pushed prices well below earlier years. See LGC prices.
What about voluntary demand and Guarantee of Origin
Some businesses buy LGCs to back voluntary renewable claims, and the government has introduced a Guarantee of Origin scheme to certify renewable electricity. These provide a role for certificates but not the compulsory demand the RET did. Their effect on pricing is uncertain.
What this means for system owners
- Large systems with LGCs. Model revenue down, and treat anything after 2030 as upside.
- Mid-scale systems. From 1 October 2026 systems from 100 kW to 1 MW can create STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period; see mid-scale solar STCs. That puts the revenue upfront, which matters when a scheme is ending. The small-scale scheme itself runs to 31 December 2030; see when the STC scheme ends.
- PPAs. Check whether your contract assumes LGC income past 2030.
How to read the headlines
Articles about the end of the RET are sometimes written as if LGCs vanish overnight. In practice certificates created before the end remain valid until surrendered, and the CER publishes the deadlines. The risk is on price and demand, not on the legal status of certificates you hold. If you are holding LGCs, decide on a sell-down plan rather than waiting for a rebound that may not come.
What this means for you
Capture value early rather than waiting for a price recovery. For small-scale certificates see STC trading, the daily rate on pricing and the deeming period guide. The commercial solar hub and wind-down topic hub cover the rest.