Two phrasings of the same question land here: “is the STC price going up or down” and “STC price trend 2026”. The honest answer is that the market is boxed in, and it is more useful to know what pushes against each side of the box.
The box
The ceiling is $40, set by the Clearing House. At the time of writing, spot has been roughly $38 to $40. That leaves at most a couple of dollars of upside and a downside that depends on supply. Over the past few years the price has mostly sat inside this narrow band. See STC price history by year.
What pushes it down
- Battery certificates. The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program, from 1 July 2025, creates STCs for batteries as well as solar. Strong uptake adds to the supply of certificates. See oversupply and battery certificates.
- Surplus in the Clearing House. A growing queue signals more certificates than buyers need.
- Heat pump and mid-scale volume. Mid-scale solar above 100 kW and up to 1 MW starts creating STCs from 1 October 2026, which adds another source, see mid-scale solar STCs.
What pushes it up
- Shortening deeming period. 5 years for 2026 installs, 4 for 2027, down to 1 in 2030. Fewer certificates per system means less supply each year.
- Liable-entity demand. The small-scale technology percentage for 2026 is reported at about 11.67%, which sets how many certificates retailers must surrender.
- Compliance deadlines. Buying often lifts around surrender dates.
So which way?
At the time of writing, the pressures roughly balance. The market is more likely to drift in cents than leap in dollars, and a downside shock from oversupply is more plausible than an upside spike, because the cap limits the latter.
What this means for installers
Avoid building a margin on a forecast. Quote from the rate your trader publishes, and know when it is locked. Our pricing page shows today’s rate, how an STC rate lock works explains the trigger, and what an STC is worth has the dollars. For the longer horizon, read STC price forecasts to 2030.