Spot is the price for certificates that change hands now, rather than under a forward contract. For STCs in 2026 it has been roughly $38 to $40, and the Clearing House at $40 acts as a ceiling that spot cannot sensibly exceed.
How spot is set
Brokers, traders and large buyers quote prices for parcels of certificates. Where deals actually occur forms the spot level, and published indexes track it. Because liable entities can always buy at $40, nobody has a reason to pay more. The discount to $40 reflects how quickly certificates can be transferred and how comfortable the buyer is with the parcel.
Spot versus your rate
An installer rarely sells at spot. You sell at a trader’s buy rate, which is spot less the trader’s costs and margin, adjusted for settlement speed and risk. A trader that pays within a day is financing your cash flow, and one that pays on 20 or 30 day terms is asking you to finance them. Compare like with like. See payment terms, 20 days versus 1 day.
What to watch
- The ceiling. When spot is within a dollar or two of $40, there is little room above for any trader.
- Deeming period changes. Fewer certificates per system from 2027 can tighten supply.
- Lock timing. A rate that is only quoted, not locked, can move before you are paid.
What this means for installers
Use spot as a sanity check, not a target. Energy Merchants publishes its rate daily on the pricing page, locks it when a complete claim is lodged and charges zero fees, so there is nothing to subtract. Further reading: how STC trading works and what is an STC worth.
Prices move, so treat any number here as a snapshot and check the live figure before you quote a job.
One practical point: spot quotes are usually for a parcel of certificates, and small parcels from a single installer rarely trade at the headline level. That is another reason to deal with a trader who aggregates volume and passes a clear, published rate through rather than negotiating each job.