People search for forecasts for 2028, 2029 and 2030 individually, and for “STC price prediction Australia” or “STC market outlook”. Anyone offering a precise dollar figure is guessing. What you can do is understand the forces, and size the range.
Fixed points
- Ceiling. The Clearing House price is $40, so spot cannot sustainably exceed it.
- Deeming period. Five years for 2026 installs, four for 2027, shrinking to one year in 2030, which cuts the certificates each system creates. See deeming periods and zone ratings.
- End date. Small-scale solar certificates stop being created after 31 December 2030, subject to any change in law, see what happens in 2030.
What the regulator projects
The Clean Energy Regulator publishes non-binding projections of how many STCs will be created, which feed the small-scale technology percentage that liable entities must meet. For 2026 that percentage is reported at about 11.67%, with non-binding forecasts of roughly 10.75% for 2027 and 7.77% for 2028. Those are volumes of obligation, not price forecasts, but they show the direction: fewer certificates needed as the scheme winds down.
The three drivers for 2028 to 2030
Supply from batteries and mid-scale solar. Batteries since July 2025 and mid-scale solar from 1 October 2026 add certificates beyond rooftop solar. If they outrun the shrinking obligation, spot softens. See oversupply and battery certificates.
Demand from liable entities. As the percentage falls, so does the number of certificates retailers need.
Rush behaviour. Installers tend to rush before deeming changes, creating bunches of supply. The final years may see this exaggerated.
A sensible way to think about 2028 to 2030
| Scenario | Effect |
|---|---|
| Supply tracks obligation | Spot stays in the high $30s |
| Battery and mid-scale oversupply | Spot softens, Clearing House queue grows |
| Policy extension or change | Unknown, see scheme extension |
These are scenarios, not predictions.
What this means for installers
Plan around the certainty you have: fewer certificates per system each January, and a 2030 end date. Quote on the current rate, lock it at lodgement and avoid long forward commitments based on a view, see forward contracts. Read whether prices fall as the scheme ends, check today’s number on the pricing page and see what changes in January.