People ask the same thing in two ways: what happens to STCs in 2030, and what happens when the scheme ends. The scheme in question is the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES), and its end date is set in legislation: 31 December 2030.
The glide path to zero
STCs for solar are calculated using a deeming period, the number of years of future generation counted upfront. It shortens each year.
| Install year | Deeming period |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 years |
| 2027 | 4 years |
| 2028 | 3 years |
| 2029 | 2 years |
| 2030 | 1 year |
The scheme ends on 31 December 2030, so there is no deeming period after that. For a 6.6 kW system in zone 3 (Sydney, Brisbane), the STC count falls from about 45 in 2026 to about 9 in 2030, at 6.6 x 1.382 x 1. At roughly $38 to $40 per STC today, that is a drop from around $1,700 to under $400 in discount, before market changes. The yearly drops are explained in why the solar rebate drops each year and our deeming guide. The 2027 change is the next step.
What happens to systems already installed
Nothing changes for them. STCs are created once, shortly after installation, and your discount was in the price you paid. There is no ongoing payment to lose in 2030. Warranties, feed-in arrangements and your savings carry on as before.
What about batteries and hot water?
- Batteries. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program factor is stepping down every six months, from 6.8 at the time of writing to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027, and continuing down towards 2030. Check the program’s end date on the program page.
- Hot water and heat pumps. These also depend on the SRES, so they follow the same end date. See heat pump and hot water STCs.
- Mid-scale solar. From 1 October 2026 systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW create STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period. See mid-scale solar STCs.
Does waiting make sense?
Rarely, because the discount only shrinks. If you plan to install solar or a battery, each year of delay costs STC value. The saving from running your own solar usually outweighs waiting for panel prices to drop. See should I install solar now or wait.
What this means for you
If you are planning an install, get a quote soon, check the STC count with the STC calculator, and read what happens to prices after 2030. The homeowners guide covers the rest. Installers planning their book can look at selling STCs before the deeming drops and our pricing.