Few certificate markets have moved as far as the VEEC. Around 2020 a Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate was reported to be trading at about $30. By late 2024 it was above $110, a record, and the market was widely described as short of supply. Since then it has eased and settled in a band in the mid-$80s to mid-$90s, which is where it has been for most of 2026.
That is a near-quadrupling and a partial retreat in six years, and it matters to anyone delivering Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) activities, because the VEEC is the discount that funds them. This article walks through the phases, what drove each one and what to watch next. Figures are as reported by market commentators and the Victorian Government, and any price you act on should be checked against a current published rate. For today’s number, see VEEC price today and the VEEC trading page.
What a VEEC is
One VEEC represents one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent abated by an eligible upgrade, such as an efficient heat pump, a reverse-cycle air conditioner, or a lighting retrofit. The scheme is run by the Essential Services Commission (ESC). Electricity and gas retailers in Victoria must surrender enough VEECs each year to meet a target, and the people who deliver the upgrades create the certificates and sell them.
The target is the demand side. Set it higher and demand for certificates rises, which supports price. Set it lower and the market may be oversupplied. Everything else, from the cost of delivering an upgrade to the number of accredited persons, is a modifier on that.
Phase one: the $30 years
In the early 2020s VEEC prices were low, with market reports putting the price at about $30 in 2020. At that price, only the most efficient delivery models were profitable on many activities, and a lot of the incentive that customers saw was modest. The scheme worked, but it was not a major source of margin for installers.
Phase two: the climb
From roughly 2022 the price rose steadily. Three forces were at work:
- Higher targets. The government raised annual targets to expand the scheme.
- Constrained supply. More demand for certificates did not immediately produce more certificates. Delivering upgrades takes skilled trades, accredited persons and products on the approved lists.
- Cost pressure. Labour and equipment costs rose, so the price needed to make an activity viable rose with them.
By late 2024 spot prices had passed $110, a record. At that level a single heat pump or air conditioner job carried a certificate value that made a visible difference to the customer’s price. Our answer on why VEEC prices are so high goes into the supply side.
Phase three: the easing
In May 2025 the Victorian Government announced VEEC targets for 2026 of 4.4 million and for 2027 of 4.6 million. Reports at the time recorded a drop from about $91 to about $85, where the price stabilised. The market’s reaction told you something: traders read the targets as adequate, not a shock, and priced accordingly.
Through 2026 the spot price has stayed roughly in the $85 to $95 range. Market commentators reported the price at about $86 in late September, inside a month-long band of roughly $83 to $87. Treat those as snapshots, as the number moves.
The shape of the history
| Period | Approximate level | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | About $30 | Lower targets, ample supply |
| 2022 to 2024 | Rising to over $110 | Higher targets, supply constraints, cost rises |
| 2025 | Eased to mid-$80s | Targets announced for 2026 and 2027 |
| 2026 | About $85 to $95 | Balanced, but sensitive to policy |
What the history means for your quotes
At $90 per VEEC, an activity that creates 20 certificates carries $1,800 of certificate value. At $30, the same job would carry $600. The difference is the discount a customer sees, or the margin an installer keeps. So the question for planning is how much of today’s price to rely on.
A cautious approach is to price jobs off a figure a little below spot, and treat anything above it as upside. If you built a business on VEECs at $110 and the market ran to $85, your margin fell by roughly a fifth. A 10% buffer in your quotes is cheap insurance.
From the desk: Do not confuse a record price with a new normal. The highest VEEC prices came when supply was short, and they eased when the government announced targets that the market judged sufficient. If you are signing a long contract or hiring staff on the strength of a number you saw in 2024, test it against $70 and see whether the business still works.
What could move it next
- Target changes. The government sets targets years ahead, and any revision changes demand. Watch announcements from the Victorian Government and the ESC.
- Activity changes. Adding or removing eligible activities alters supply. Our piece on VEECs and STCs on the same job shows how heat pumps and hot water sit across two schemes.
- Retailer behaviour. Retailers’ decisions about how much to buy forward and when affect short-run swings.
- Delivery capacity. More accredited persons and installers mean more certificates, which can cool the market.
How to track it
The ESC publishes scheme data and market notices. Brokers and traders publish spot and forward prices. Keep a simple log, weekly, of the price you were offered and the date, so you can see your own trend. And, as with any certificate, compare net dollars after fees and the timing of payment. Our rate card guide was written for STCs, but the same layers apply to VEECs. For the process of getting accredited, see how to become a VEU accredited person.
Why the price differs from the STC story
An STC is capped by a fixed $40 clearing house price. VEECs have no such ceiling, so the price can run much further when supply is short, and has. That makes VEEC pricing more volatile in dollar terms than STC pricing. A $10 move on a $90 certificate is about 11%, while the whole working band of the STC market is only a few dollars. If your business leans on VEECs, you carry more price risk, which is a good reason to understand forward selling and rate locks. Our VEEC trading page explains how a locked rate removes the gap between the price you see and the price you get.
It also explains why the VEEC story is mostly about policy. When the government sets a higher target, it changes the expected demand for years, and the market reprices at once. If you are reading the next announcement, look for three things: the size of the target, the years it covers, and any change to which activities can create certificates.
What to do next
- Check the current VEEC price on a published rate and note the date
- Re-run your margins on your three most common activities at $70, $85 and $100
- Read the VEEC trading page and the pricing page for how the rate is published and locked
- If your jobs also create STCs, read heat pump hot water STCs explained