Over three years the Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate (VEEC) went from a market under pressure to a record, then to a range of about $85 to $95. If you create VEECs under Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU), those three years rewrote your margin. This article compares them side by side, with the job maths, and stays on what is public. For the longer view back to 2020, see our longer VEEC price history.
2024: a market running short
Through 2024 VEEC creation lagged behind the run rate needed to meet the annual target. The stock of surplus certificates, the buffer that smooths a market, was eroding for two years. Prices rose as retailers, who must surrender VEECs, competed for fewer certificates. The expected shortfall penalty put an effective ceiling on where prices could go, and prices moved toward it.
2025: the peak and the reset
The 2025 target was 7.3 million VEECs, and creation was behind the run rate. Prices hit a record near $110 in this squeeze. Then the government acted: it announced much lower targets for 2026 and 2027 (4.4 million and 4.6 million), reasoning that the market needed to rebuild its surplus after a prolonged period of under-creation, and expecting around 6 million VEECs to be created each year. The Minister also raised the shortfall penalty rate to $100, to keep retailers buying (reported). The price eased as the announcement landed. See why VEEC prices rose for the mechanics.
2026: a range, not a trend
With lower targets and creation running above the target, the spot market has been roughly $85 to $95 in 2026, with a late September snapshot of about $85 to $90 (reported), inside a 30-day band of about $83 to $87 in one broker’s data. The government’s own modelling expected prices to ease further in 2026 and 2027 compared with recent levels. Some costs rose: reported 2026 fees include a certificate creation fee up from $2.33 to $4.35, and an energy acquisition statement fee up from $3,122 to $4,829, from 1 January 2026. Confirm both on the VEU program page.
Side by side
| Year | Target | Market condition | Price pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Higher, supply lagging | Surplus eroding | Rising |
| 2025 | 7.3 million | Short, creation behind | Record near $110, then easing |
| 2026 | 4.4 million | Creation above target | Roughly $85 to $95 |
| 2027 | 4.6 million | Surplus expected to be rebuilt | Modelled to ease; not guaranteed |
What it does to a job
VEEC value on a job is the number of certificates times the price. Take an activity that creates 20 VEECs:
| Price | Certificate value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| $110 | $2,200 | Peak |
| $90 | $1,800 | 2026 band |
| $85 | $1,700 | Low end of the 2026 range |
From peak to the 2026 range, that job lost about $400 of certificate value. On a business creating 300 jobs a year, it is $120,000. This is why installers who built their pricing on the peak were hurt, and why a cautious plan prices off a number a little below spot.
The VEEC and STC comparison
STCs are anchored near $38 to $40 by the clearing house, so STC income per certificate barely moves. VEECs have no such anchor, and a three-year range of $85 to $110 shows it. A heat pump hot water job in Victoria can earn both a VEEC and an STC, and our guide to VEECs and STCs on the same job covers the rules. The practical result is that on dual jobs the STC side is the stable income and the VEEC side is the variable one.
From the desk: Price Victorian jobs off a VEEC figure at least 10% under spot and treat anything above that as a bonus. A $90 market with a $81 price in your quote protects you from a month of bad news, and costs the customer nothing they notice.
Reading a VEEC chart
Ask three questions of any VEEC price series. Is it spot or forward? Does it come from a broker’s indicative quote or from reported trades? And what was happening to the target and the surplus at each turn? The same price at a time of surplus and a time of shortage means different things. The Essential Services Commission, which runs VEU, publishes data on creation and the registry. Use it with broker updates.
What would move it next
Four things matter: creation volume versus target, the size of the surplus, any change to the shortfall penalty, and changes to what activities earn certificates. Government modelling points to softer prices through 2027, but modelling is not a forecast of a market. Our VEEC price forecast for 2027 sets out scenarios.
What the three years teach
First, a certificate market with no ceiling and a thin buffer moves a long way on little news. Second, the policy response is large and fast: the government changed targets by roughly 40% between 2025 and 2026 (from 7.3 million to 4.4 million) and adjusted the penalty rate, and the market repriced within weeks. Third, the price you see is not the price you receive. Brokers quote a headline, traders take a margin, and fees can cut the net. On a 20-VEEC job at a headline $90, a 4% margin is $72, small on one job and about $21,600 across 300.
A planning table for a Victorian installer
| Question | Conservative answer | Why |
|---|---|---|
| What VEEC price do I plan on? | About 10% under current spot | The government modelled lower prices for 2026 and 2027 |
| How many VEECs per job? | Use the activity’s published calculation | Counts differ by activity and product |
| What fees do I factor in? | Creation and registry fees, including the reported 2026 increases | Check the VEU page |
| What if the price falls $15? | 20 VEECs less $300 per job | Keep a margin for it |
For the Victorian program itself, read VEECs explained and how they relate to rebates in VEU rebate versus Solar Victoria rebate.
What to do next
- Check the current VEEC price from a broker update before quoting a Victorian job
- Read VEEC trading and the VEECs pillar
- See how fast VEEC payment should be, and compare pricing
- If you do dual jobs, use the STC calculator for the solar side