VEECs trade at levels that surprised many installers who started in the market a few years ago. The reasons are structural, not a fluke.
What drives the price
A rising target. Retailers in Victoria must surrender enough VEECs each year to meet their share of the target. When the target increases, demand increases.
Supply constraints. VEECs come from qualifying activities, such as efficient heating and cooling, hot water and lighting. Supply responds slowly to demand, because it needs installers, products and customer take-up.
The penalty backstop. Retailers face a penalty for shortfalls, which creates a ceiling in effect. When the market is tight, prices climb toward it.
Market behaviour. Holders may hold certificates when they expect higher prices, reducing available supply.
At the time of writing, spot has been roughly $85 to $95 in 2026, with a record near $110. Check current figures with a trader before you plan a margin.
What it means for jobs
A higher VEEC price makes activities such as heat pumps more attractive. That in turn may boost supply, one of the forces that tends to bring prices back. See heat pump VEECs in Victoria.
Selling at high prices
Sell to a buyer with a published rate, who pays on a known timeline, and who will check your evidence. Evidence matters more when the value per job is high, because audit scrutiny follows the money.
What could bring prices down
More supply is the main force. Higher prices attract providers and increase the number of eligible jobs. A change in the target, new activities, changes to the penalty or a rule change that makes certificates easier to create can also move the market. Forecasting is difficult, so treat any projection with caution. If you plan a business around a VEEC price, test it at a much lower number to see whether it still works.
What this means for installers
If you deliver VEEC activities, treat the price as a variable, not a constant. See how we buy at the VEEC trading page, check today’s rates and read VEECs and STCs on the same job. For buyer types, see what a VEEC aggregator is.