A VEEC price forecast for 2027 is a set of scenarios, not a number. At the time of writing the spot market has traded roughly between $85 and $95 through 2026, after a record near $110, and the direction in 2027 depends on four things you can actually watch: the energy savings target retailers must meet, how many certificates installers create, how many certificates are banked in the system, and the outcome of the program’s strategic review.
If you create VEECs for a living, the practical question is not “what will the price be” but “what happens to my business if the price is $20 lower, and what do I do differently if it is $20 higher”. This guide gives you the drivers, a simple scenario table, and a way to plan without relying on a prediction.
How VEEC prices are set
A Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate represents one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent abated. Energy retailers above a size threshold are liable entities under the Victorian Energy Upgrades program, administered by the Essential Services Commission, and must surrender enough certificates to meet their share of an annual target. Accredited providers create certificates when they deliver approved activities, and sell them to the retailers directly or through traders.
So price is the clearing level between demand set by the target and supply set by installer activity. Unlike STCs, there is no fixed-price clearing house backstop, which is why VEEC prices swing much more.
Driver one: the target
Targets are set in legislation or regulation for each period. Reports from the Victorian Government and industry commentary in 2026 indicate interim targets for 2026 and 2027 rather than the usual five-year period, set while a strategic review runs, and a lower 2026 target than 2025. Check the ESC and the Victorian Government’s energy pages for the exact figures and any change, because a target is the single most direct lever on demand.
What to watch: a higher 2027 target supports prices; a lower one weakens them, particularly if supply is strong.
Driver two: supply and activity mix
Supply is what installers create. Lighting and some commercial activities fell away as markets saturated, while heat pump hot water and efficient heating and cooling have become more important. When a popular activity is changed or has its energy-savings formula revised, volumes can move sharply. In a tight market, a rise in installer activity (for example, if government incentives for heat pumps increase demand) adds certificates and tempers prices.
What to watch: monthly creation volumes in the VEU Registry, and any amendments to activity requirements.
Driver three: banked certificates
Liable entities and traders can hold certificates beyond the compliance deadline. A large bank of unsold certificates caps the price because holders will sell when it rises. A thin bank makes prices more sensitive to news. This is why prices often spike in the months before the annual surrender date when buyers realise they are short.
Driver four: policy and the review
Victoria has extended the program’s legislated life to 2045, and the strategic review will inform longer-term targets and activity design. A clear, higher long-run target tends to support forward contracts. Uncertainty tends to shorten the horizon of buyers.
Three planning scenarios
These are illustrations, not predictions. The dollar values show how sensitive an installer’s margin is.
| Scenario | Spot price | Value of 1,000 VEECs | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Softer | $70 | $70,000 | Margin pressure on activities with thin margins |
| Base | $90 | $90,000 | Consistent with the 2026 range |
| Firmer | $105 | $105,000 | Headroom to discount to customers or sell at a premium |
A 20 per cent move in the price on 1,000 certificates a month is $18,000 a month. If your gross margin on a heat pump job is built from the VEEC value, that swing is the difference between a good month and a bad one.
How installers can plan without forecasting
- Match sales to commitments. If you have promised customers a fixed discount, sell the certificates promptly so you are not holding price risk against a fixed liability.
- Stagger sales. Selling a third each month over three months averages the price.
- Keep a floor. Decide the lowest price at which a job still earns its margin, and price your discounts off that, not the spot price on the day.
- Watch the calendar. Prices often firm ahead of the surrender deadline, so check ESC dates.
- Know your buyer. A trader with a published rate and a defined settlement time lets you plan cash, even when the market moves.
What a forecast cannot tell you
A forecast cannot tell you about a policy change midyear, an audit finding against a major activity, or a sudden change in demand. It also cannot tell you whether the specific certificate batch you create is valid. Create quality is part of price: a certificate that fails an ESC audit is worth nothing to the buyer. Our guide to VEECs and STCs on the same job covers one common area of confusion.
See also the answers on why VEEC prices are so high and today’s VEEC price.
Signals worth a monthly check
A forecast is only as good as the inputs, so build a short monthly routine. Look at the ESC’s announcements for target or activity changes. Check the number of certificates created in the VEU Registry compared with the same month last year, because a sudden jump in supply from one activity often precedes a softer price. Note the gap between what traders publish for spot and what they offer for forward delivery; a wide gap suggests the market expects a different price later. Finally, watch the news on Victorian energy policy, since the review’s outputs can arrive with little warning.
None of this makes you a price predictor. It does keep you from being surprised, which is what protects margin.
Why 2027 might differ from 2026
Two structural facts make 2027 worth separate thought. First, the target for 2026 was reported as lower than 2025, and the 2027 target is also interim, so buyers are working with shorter horizons than in the past. Shorter horizons tend to mean less forward buying and more sensitivity to the spot market. Second, as the program shifts toward electrification, the mix of activities creating certificates is changing, which changes both how many certificates a job earns and how reliably volumes can be forecast. Both effects argue for caution with any single-point forecast.
What to do next
- Write down your break-even price per VEEC for each activity you deliver.
- Check the ESC’s current target and review timeline.
- If you are looking for a buyer with a published rate and clear settlement, see VEEC trading, the pricing page and how it works.