The Renewable Energy Target (RET) has a finish line. The scheme that has paid for most of Australia’s rooftop solar is legislated to end in 2030, and the small-scale part of it winds down in steps. Each January the number of years of generation that a new system can claim shrinks by one, until the last installs in 2030 claim a single year. Then the scheme closes on 31 December 2030.
For installers, that makes 2030 a planning horizon, not a distant date. The STC value of a job falls every year, the market’s supply of certificates will narrow, and any business that has built its margin on the discount needs a plan for when it is gone. This article sets out what is known, what is not, and what a sensible crew can do now. It covers the schedule and the planning. For the price side, see STC price forecast.
What the RET is, in two schemes
The RET has two parts. The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) covers rooftop solar, small wind and hydro, solar and heat pump hot water and, since 1 July 2025, batteries under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program. It creates STCs. The Large-scale Renewable Energy Target covers power stations, including solar above 100 kW, and creates LGCs. Both end in 2030 under current law. Our answer on when the STC scheme ends gives the short version, and the LGC trading article covers the large-scale side.
The schedule for small-scale solar
The deeming period is the number of years of expected generation you can claim upfront. It falls by one each January:
| Install year | Deeming period | Certificates for 6.6 kW at zone 1.382 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 years | 54 |
| 2026 | 5 years | 45 |
| 2027 | 4 years | 36 |
| 2028 | 3 years | 27 |
| 2029 | 2 years | 18 |
| 2030 | 1 year | 9 |
At roughly $38 a certificate, the discount on that system falls from about $2,050 in 2025 to about $340 in 2030. That is a big change in the economics of the sale, and it is entirely scheduled. The zone ratings (1.622, 1.536, 1.382 and 1.185) stay the same. See our deeming period guide and the January 2027 article.
What about batteries?
The battery STC factor also steps down, now every six months. For 2026 installs it is 6.8 per kWh, falling to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and to 5.2 on 1 July 2027, and it keeps stepping down every six months to 2030. So the incentive for batteries shrinks on a schedule too, though the starting level is high. Our battery STC pages explain the program.
What is not known
Be careful here, because many articles are not. At the time of writing:
- There is no confirmed replacement for the SRES for rooftop solar after 2030.
- The treatment of certificates already created, and of the retailer obligation after 2030, is set by legislation and CER guidance, which you should check rather than assume.
- Market prices in the final years are uncertain. A shrinking supply could support prices, while falling demand as the end date nears could cut them. The market has not told us which.
Treat anything more specific with caution, including from us. The Clean Energy Regulator and the federal climate and energy department are the sources to follow.
Four effects to plan for
1. A pull-forward each December. Each year, some households and installers bring jobs forward to claim under the older, more generous rules. That creates a busy end of year and a quieter start to the next. You can see this clearly around each January.
2. Falling revenue per job. On a typical system, the certificate value drops by by 17 percent in 2026 and by more each year after, reaching half in the last step, which falls hardest on installers who discount the STC aggressively to win work. Your pricing has to cover the gap.
3. A shift toward batteries and services. Households that can no longer rely on a large upfront discount will weigh batteries, hot water and maintenance more. The mix of work changes.
4. A shrinking certificate trade. If your business sells STCs, volumes per job fall, and so does the importance of volume tiers, rate differences and settlement speed. Cash-flow discipline matters more when each job is worth less.
A planning exercise
Take your 2026 numbers and rerun them for 2028:
- Average system 6.6 kW, 40 jobs a month
- 2026: 45 STCs per job at $38 is $1,710, or $68,400 a month
- 2028: 27 STCs per job at $38 is $1,026, or $41,040 a month
That is $27,360 a month less certificate value passing through your business, which is either margin or customer discount. Plan for either a higher net price or other revenue.
From the desk: Do not wait until 2029 to adjust your pricing. Build the deeming steps into your quotes now, with a note on the quote of how many certificates it assumes and for which year. Customers who understand why the discount shrinks are easier to quote, and it protects you from absorbing the drop in margin.
Staying useful after the discount
Installers that do well in a post-subsidy market tend to share traits: they own their customer relationships, they sell on quality and service, and they add maintenance, battery retrofits, hot water and EV charging to the mix. Programs that remain, like state schemes for heat pumps and efficiency, offer other certificate streams. Our guide on VEEC trading and heat pump hot water STCs are examples. Consider where those fit in your business.
Check the answer on whether the solar rebate will end in 2030 for the quick version you can share with customers.
What customers should hear from you
Households ask whether they should install now or wait. The honest answer, given the schedule, is that waiting does not improve the discount. Each January it falls, and no scheduled change raises it. That does not mean everyone should rush: the right time is when the system suits the home and the price is fair. But a customer who has already decided to install gains nothing by delaying into a year with a smaller discount, and you can show them the table above. Being plain about it builds trust, and it is a better sales conversation than a manufactured deadline. The answer on installing now or waiting is written for that conversation.
What to do next
- Put the deeming schedule into your quote template, with the certificate count for the install year
- Run your numbers for 2028 and 2029 and see how your margin holds
- Follow the Clean Energy Regulator for announcements about the post-2030 arrangements
- Read the STC trading overview and the pricing page to keep your settlement terms sharp while volumes per job fall