LGC prices have moved through four distinct phases in under a decade: a shortage-driven peak near $85 in 2017 and 2018, a collapse to $30 to $40 as new projects arrived in 2019 and 2020, a long plateau around $40 to $50 through 2023 and early 2024, and then a steep fall to single digits in 2025 and 2026. Each phase has a simple cause, and the cause tells you what to watch next.
For installers and commercial solar owners, the history matters because it corrects a common assumption: that certificates hold their value. They do not. The figures below are approximate, drawn from regulator and market commentary, and you should check the Clean Energy Regulator’s quarterly carbon market reports for exact data. For the forward-looking view, see our LGC price forecast.
The timeline
| Period | Approximate spot range | What drove it |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 to 2018 | $80 to $85 | Too few certificates for the rising target |
| 2019 to 2020 | $30 to $40 | A surge of new projects created oversupply |
| 2021 to 2022 | $35 to $50 | Demand from the scheme and voluntary buyers absorbing supply |
| 2023 to early 2024 | $40 to $50 | Relatively balanced market; about $49 at the start of 2024 |
| Start of 2025 | about $21 | Prices already falling fast |
| End of 2025 | about $6 | Oversupply and weaker voluntary demand |
| February 2026 | about $4.25 | The low so far |
| June 2026 | about $4.60 | Still depressed |
| Late September 2026 | about $8 | A recovery from the lows |
Phase 1: The shortage
The Large-scale Renewable Energy Target stepped up to 33,000 GWh a year by 2020. In the years before, too few large projects were being built to meet it, so liable entities competed for certificates and the price rose towards $85. That is the number people still quote when they say LGCs are valuable.
Phase 2: The wave of projects
The price signal worked. A wave of wind and solar projects reached financial close and began generating, and by 2019 supply had caught up. Prices fell by more than half. Projects financed on the assumption of $80 certificates were suddenly re-forecasting.
Phase 3: Balance
From 2021 to early 2024 the market held in a $40 to $50 band. Demand from the scheme was steady, and voluntary corporate demand added a layer. At the start of 2024 the spot price was about $49, and it dipped to about $43.75 after the surrender deadline in February that year, which illustrates how the annual compliance cycle can move prices.
Phase 4: The collapse
The fall from the $40s to single digits took about eighteen months. Strong renewable capacity growth continued, and voluntary demand weakened. As the market realised that supply would exceed the target through to 2030, there was little reason to hold certificates for a later rise. Prices bottomed in the first half of 2026 and recovered partly to around $8 by late September, within the roughly $6 to $9 range of September 2026.
What the history teaches
- Prices follow the supply and demand balance, not the cost of generation. A project’s costs have no influence on the certificate price.
- The compliance calendar creates short-term moves. Look at the weeks around the surrender deadline.
- Voluntary demand is the swing factor. It is more volatile than the compliance floor.
- The end date matters. With the target ending in 2030, certificates have a finite life, so holding stock is riskier than it looks.
- Do not budget off the peak. If a financial model uses a historical average, check which years it includes.
A note on reading historical data
Three cautions apply to any LGC price series. First, spot prices from different sources can differ by a dollar or two on the same day, because they come from different trades and different times. Second, the series mixes certificates of different vintages, and older vintages can trade differently from the current compliance year. Third, ranges hide volatility: a “$40 to $50” band covered months in which the price moved by several dollars in a week. Use ranges to understand the regime, and use dated quotes from a named source for any decision that involves money.
What the history means for commercial solar
For an LGC-earning system (above 1 MW, or an older system above 100 kW), certificate revenue that looked material at $40 is small at $8, and may not cover the costs of accreditation, metering and administration for small systems. If you own such a system, review whether you are still registering and trading certificates, and what you net per MWh after fees. A 300 MWh a year system earning $8 gets $2,400 a year in gross certificate value, against a cost base that may be several hundred dollars or more. At $45 the same output would have been $13,500. Run your own numbers: the gap between the two is the size of the change.
What it means for STCs
LGCs and STCs are different markets. STCs have a regulator-run clearing house at a fixed $40, which is why the spot price has stayed in a narrow band while LGCs fell by 80 per cent. If you deal in both, remember that the STC price offers a price floor of sorts for sellers who can wait, and the LGC has no such mechanism. Our answers on LGC versus STC and the difference between STCs and LGCs set out the contrast.
Where to look for current data
The Clean Energy Regulator’s quarterly carbon market reports give supply, surrender and price data. Traders publish indicative daily prices. Our answers on LGC spot price and LGC price today are kept current. For installers, remember that Energy Merchants’ STC buy rates are published on pricing; LGC pricing is outside that page.
What to do next
- Check your project’s certificate assumptions against the table.
- Pull the regulator’s latest quarterly report for current supply and demand.
- Read the resources library, the certificate trading glossary and the LGC explainer.
- If you work with STCs as well, see how it works and STC trading.