The honest LGC price forecast is a range and a set of conditions, not a number. At the time of writing, large-scale generation certificates were roughly $6 to $9 in September 2026, after falling as low as about $4 in February. The Clean Energy Regulator has said supply is expected to exceed demand until the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target ends in 2030, which is a heavy anchor on the price unless something changes the balance.
If you own or are developing commercial solar above 1 MW, or an older system above 100 kW, or if you are buying certificates for compliance or voluntary use, that anchor matters more than any single forecast. This guide sets out what drives the price, three scenarios with the money attached, and how to build a budget that survives a wrong guess.
What an LGC is
One LGC represents one megawatt-hour of eligible renewable electricity generated above a baseline by an accredited power station, including commercial solar above 1 MW (and older commercial solar above 100 kW). Liable entities, mainly electricity retailers, must surrender LGCs each year in proportion to the Renewable Power Percentage, a figure set by the regulator. For the basics, see our answers on what an LGC is worth and LGC versus STC.
The drivers
Supply. Strong development of large-scale wind and solar adds certificates every year. When projects are built faster than the target requires, supply exceeds demand.
Demand from the scheme. The target is fixed in gigawatt-hours up to 2030. Once enough certificates exist to meet it, extra supply has little compliance value.
Voluntary demand. Corporate buyers purchase LGCs to back renewable claims. Weaker voluntary demand, which contributed to the 2025 fall, leaves more certificates unsold. Changes to how renewable electricity is certified, including the Guarantee of Origin scheme, can shift voluntary demand.
Timing. Retailers must surrender certificates by an annual deadline, and the market can firm or soften around it.
Policy and end date. The scheme ends in 2030, so certificates have a limited life. Buyers become reluctant to hold stock they might not need.
The price path so far
At the start of 2025 the spot price was around $21, fell to about $6 by the end of 2025, touched about $4.25 in February 2026, and was around $4.60 by mid June 2026, then recovered to roughly $8 by late September, according to market reports. Our companion guide, LGC price history, puts that in the long-run context.
Three scenarios
These are illustrations, not predictions.
| Scenario | Spot price | Value of 10,000 LGCs | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stays low | $5 | $50,000 | Certificate revenue is minor in the project model |
| Recovers modestly | $10 | $100,000 | Consistent with the late 2026 range |
| Stronger rebound | $20 | $200,000 | Needs demand to rise or supply to slow |
A 10,000 MWh a year commercial solar farm earning 10,000 LGCs sees a $150,000 swing between the lowest and highest rows. For a rooftop system generating 150 MWh a year, the same price swing is $2,250, which may or may not matter to your payback.
What commercial solar owners should do
- Model revenue without LGCs. Treat certificate revenue as upside, not as part of the base case.
- Check eligibility. Systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 create STCs instead (see mid-scale solar STCs). See also commercial solar above 100 kW and LGCs.
- Understand the costs. Accreditation, metering and registry fees reduce what you net per certificate.
- Choose between selling and holding. With an end date and a bearish market, holding has a cost. Sell regularly unless you have a reason to hold.
- Know your counterparty. A buyer’s payment terms are as important as the price.
What buyers should do
If you are a liable entity or a voluntary buyer, a low price is an opportunity and a risk. It is cheap compliance, but it may not last if supply tightens. Layering purchases over time, with some forward cover, avoids buying everything on one day. Voluntary buyers should also check whether the claim they are making is supported by certificates that meet the standard they care about.
Signals worth watching
Build a short monthly dashboard. First, the Clean Energy Regulator’s quarterly carbon market report, which publishes supply, demand and surrender data for LGCs. Second, the Renewable Power Percentage for the coming year, since a lower percentage means lower compliance demand. Third, the volume of newly accredited power stations and the creation of certificates, which shows supply momentum. Fourth, announcements from large corporate buyers or changes to renewable electricity claim standards, which can shift voluntary demand. Fifth, the gap between spot and forward quotes from traders, as the market’s own estimate of the direction.
If three or four of these move the same way, it is worth revisiting your assumptions. If they conflict, treat the market as uncertain and keep your model conservative.
Worked example: a 500 kW commercial rooftop
A 500 kW array in a sunny region might generate in the order of 750 MWh a year, depending on location and design, and would create roughly 750 LGCs a year if accredited and above its baseline (a figure to confirm with the regulator’s rules). At $8 that is $6,000 a year; at $20, $15,000; at $5, $3,750. Compare that with the annual cost of accreditation, metering and administration. At low prices the net can be small, and for some systems it is not worth the effort of registering. At the higher end it is a meaningful addition. Your project’s actual numbers depend on the system, the baseline and the fees, so do the sum before committing to the process.
Why a single-point forecast is risky
Prices in this market have gone from $80 plus to single digits in less than a decade. A forecast that does not state its assumptions, such as supply growth, voluntary demand and policy settings, is not much use. When you see one, ask which assumption would have to be wrong for it to fail.
What to do next
- Rebuild your commercial solar model at three prices: $5, $10 and $20.
- Read LGC price history and the answer on today’s LGC price.
- For the broader picture of certificate markets and how traders price them, see our resources, pricing and how it works.
- Check the Clean Energy Regulator’s quarterly carbon market report for the latest supply and demand figures.