There are four years left on the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme. For a trader, installer or anyone who builds a business on certificates, that is long enough to plan and short enough to matter. The scheme’s design is a long, scheduled wind-down, and the volumes and the work involved in each certificate change as it goes. This piece sets out what is known, what is not, and what we would plan for.
Nothing here is a forecast of the price. The $40 clearing house, the percentage and the demand side will set that, and we do not have the 2027 to 2030 numbers yet. This is about the shape of the market.
What is fixed
The scheme ends on 31 December 2030. The deeming period for small-scale solar falls by one year each year: 5 years for 2026 installs, 4 for 2027, then 3, 2 and 1 in 2030. The zone ratings are fixed at 1.622, 1.536, 1.382 and 1.185 for zones 1 to 4. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program factor continues to step down every six months to 2030, from 6.8 at the time of writing to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027.
On a 6.6 kW system in zone 3 the progression is:
| Install year | Deeming years | STCs |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 45 |
| 2027 | 4 | 36 |
| 2028 | 3 | 27 |
| 2029 | 2 | 18 |
| 2030 | 1 | 9 |
The count falls by about 80% from today to the final year. The effect on a trader’s certificate volume depends on how many installs happen, and that is the unknown.
What offsets the decline
Three things add volume against the falling deeming schedule:
- Batteries. Under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, a 14 kWh battery creates about 95 STCs at the current factor. It will create fewer as the factor falls, but it is a substantial certificate source for several more years.
- Mid-scale solar. From 1 October 2026, systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW create STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period. A 200 kW system in zone 3 creates 1,382 STCs. Because the period is fixed, it does not decline the way small-scale solar does. See mid-scale solar and STCs.
- Hot water. Heat pump and solar hot water STCs continue under the scheme, and the incentive remains meaningful for replacements.
Net volume therefore depends on how quickly batteries and commercial solar fill the gap left by rooftop deeming. It will not be a straight line.
What happens at the end
STCs created before the end date remain valid certificates, and liable entities have compliance obligations that follow the calendar. The practical question for a trader is the timing of the last claims and the last surrender. The CER sets and publishes those dates, and we would watch its guidance through 2029 and 2030 rather than assume. If you hold a position in certificates, a year-end 2030 position that you cannot place is a risk, so the final sell-down matters more than the final install. Read our note on the scheme ending and whether the solar rebate ends in 2030.
What is not decided
Whether the small-scale scheme is replaced by something else is not decided at the time of writing. The government has talked about electrification, batteries and a changing grid, and the wider Renewable Energy Target (the LGC scheme) also runs to 2030, with a Guarantee of Origin scheme in development or operation as a successor for large-scale certificates. We would not build a plan on a replacement that has not been announced. If one is announced, expect it to be gradual, with transitional rules.
Planning as a trader
A few principles that hold regardless of the policy:
- Work off credit and counterparty risk. As volumes fall, margins for a thin settler get thinner. Pay attention to who is on the other side of your settlement.
- Keep paperwork fault-free. A failed claim costs the same to fix at 9 STCs as at 45, so the ratio of admin to revenue rises. Compliance quality becomes the margin.
- Diversify across certificate types. STCs, VEECs, ESCs and PRCs all have separate demand sources and end dates. VEECs have been roughly $85 to $95 in 2026 and PRCs about $3 (reported), and they are small in volume next to STCs but have different timelines.
- Do not wait for a better price in the last year. A final-year certificate has little option value. The ceiling is $40.
From the desk: Ask your trader what their plan is for 2030 and 2031, in writing. A counterparty that has thought about wind-down will answer in two minutes. One that has not will change the subject. You are choosing a partner for a period that includes the last year of the scheme, so ask now.
Three scenarios for the final years
None of these is a forecast. They are ways to stress-test a plan.
Soft landing. Batteries and mid-scale solar hold volumes up while rooftop deeming falls. The percentage is set to match supply, the price stays close to the ceiling, and the market winds down in an orderly way. Margins narrow, but settlement works as it does today.
Thin years. Battery demand slows as the factor falls and customers who wanted a system have already bought one. Volumes drop faster than the percentage adjusts, supply and demand diverge, and spreads between traders widen. This is the scenario in which a counterparty’s balance sheet matters most.
Policy surprise. Government announces a transition, extension or replacement. Rules for the transition are published, and the market reprices on the news. The only protection is to hold flexible contracts and avoid long fixed-term commitments you cannot exit.
Planning for all three costs very little: shorter agreements, a written understanding of rate-lock terms, and a trader who answers the phone.
Why the last years are still worth working
It is easy to read “ends in 2030” as “not worth building on”. That would be the wrong lesson. Even at 9 STCs a rooftop system, the volume of installs across the country is large, and batteries create ten times as many certificates as a 2030 solar system. Hot water has its own track. The installers and traders who run clean operations through 2030 will carry that reputation into whatever follows, and customers remember who was still on the phone in the final year.
What installers should do with this
If you install solar, expect the certificate value of each residential job to fall every January, and expect your customers to react. The honest sales line is that the discount shrinks on a published schedule, and the household’s own savings are what make the system worthwhile. See worth installing solar without the rebate for how to frame that conversation. If you install batteries, plan around the six-monthly factor steps.
If you have an eye on commercial work, mid-scale solar is the clearest new growth. Read the 100 kW limit explained and LGC vs STC if you are still working from the old assumption that commercial systems above 100 kW can only create LGCs. LGCs have been oversupplied and cheap in 2026, roughly $6 to $9 in September after a low near $4 in February, so the mid-scale switch matters.
What to do next
- Map your 2027 to 2030 certificate volume by product line using the deeming schedule above
- Check the STC calculator and battery STC calculator for your typical jobs
- Ask your trader the wind-down question, using the certificate trader checklist
- See how STC trading works and our Partner Program for volume-linked perks
- Track dates on the scheme changes hub