Spot is simply the going price for certificates delivered now. For VEECs in 2026, that has been roughly $85 to $95 at the time of writing, after touching a record near $110.
How spot is formed
Brokers and traders quote parcels, and the level at which deals actually close sets the spot reference. Buyers are mainly Victorian energy retailers meeting their obligations under the scheme, and they buy when they need certificates for a compliance date or to hedge future needs.
Why VEECs swing more than STCs
STCs are capped by the $40 Clearing House. VEECs have no equivalent ceiling in the same form, so when supply is tight or targets are rising, prices can climb quickly. When the market is oversupplied, they can fall just as fast. It makes the lock point on your rate more important.
What drives a move
- Changes to the scheme’s targets or activities.
- The pace of certificate creation, for example a boom in air conditioner replacements.
- Retailer demand ahead of compliance deadlines.
- General sentiment about policy direction.
Spot is not your price
An installer is paid the trader’s buy rate. That is below spot by the trader’s costs and margin. Check how it is set, when it locks and whether any fees come out. Our STC spot price guide explains the same logic for the federal market.
What this means for installers
If you do Victorian upgrade work, a published daily rate is your best friend. See the pricing page for Energy Merchants’ rate and read the VEEC trading pillar to see how settlement works. For jobs that earn both certificate types, see VEECs and STCs on the same job.
There is also a timing question around the end of a compliance period. Retailers often become more active buyers as deadlines approach, and that can lift the market. Installers cannot predict it, but a trader that publishes a daily rate means you will see the move as it happens rather than finding out weeks later when settling an old claim.