Installers get asked for statistics constantly: for sales, for planning and for investors. A few figures are widely reported, but none of them is permanent, so cite the source and the date.
Rooftop solar
As reported, more than 4.3 million Australian rooftops have solar, which is one of the highest household uptake rates in the world. Most are small-scale systems that created STCs under the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme. The CER’s estimate for 2026 STC creation was about 24.1 million, excluding battery certificates, and it set the 2026 Small-scale Technology Percentage at 11.67% (reported). See STC creation forecasts.
The incentive per system falls with the deeming period: 5 years for 2026 installs, 4 for 2027, down to 1 in 2030, with the scheme ending on 31 December 2030. See the deeming period explained.
Home batteries
The Cheaper Home Batteries Program began on 1 July 2025. Reports put installations at about 350,000 within ten months and above 500,000 in just over a year, with the federal government reporting more than 507,000 households, small businesses and community organisations. Over three-quarters of batteries were reported to be in outer suburban and regional communities. The budget was expanded from $2.3bn to $7.2bn (as reported).
Attachment rates have risen sharply: as reported, 53% of new rooftop solar installs came with a battery in the first quarter of the program and 71% by the first quarter of 2026.
What the numbers mean
- Demand is deep. There is a large installed base for retrofit batteries, including customers with older solar.
- Incentives are falling. The battery factor was 9.3 at launch and is 6.8 at the time of writing, stepping to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027. Since 1 May 2026 the first 14 kWh earn 100% of the factor, 14 to 28 kWh 60% and 28 to 50 kWh 15%.
- Compliance is rising. More volume brings more audit attention: see the CER’s 2026 priorities.
- Mid-scale is opening. Systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 now create STCs: see mid-scale solar STCs.
What this means for installers
Volume is not the constraint. Cash flow and compliance are. Installers writing hundreds of battery jobs need a trader that pre-checks claims and settles quickly: see battery rebate demand surge for how to manage it. For the numbers you can control, see the battery STC calculator, battery STCs, pricing and how it works.