If you trade certificates, the creation forecast is the number that quietly sets the year. More STCs created than liable entities need means a long market and pressure on the spot price. Fewer means the clearing house ceiling matters. Here is what the regulator has published, and where to find the primary documents.
The 2026 forecast
For 2026 the Clean Energy Regulator based the small-scale technology percentage on an estimate of about 24.1 million STC creations, not counting certificates from batteries under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program. The STP it set was 11.67%. Year-to-date creations through the June quarter were reported at around 14.0 million, up roughly 11% on the year before, which is why the full-year estimate sits where it does.
The CER deliberately leaned on the high end of its consultants’ scenarios for 2026. The reason was the expected jump in solar installs that tends to ride along with a battery rebate, since many battery buyers add or upgrade panels at the same time.
The 2027 outlook
The regulator also publishes non-binding STP forecasts for later years. At the time of writing the 2027 figure is about 10.75%, and the 2028 figure about 7.77%. They fall because the deeming period shortens by a year each January, so each system creates fewer certificates, even if install volumes hold. For the mechanics see deeming period and zone ratings and what changes in January 2027.
Treat non-binding numbers as direction, not promise. The final STP is set in the year, from the latest data.
Where the projections come from
The CER commissions independent modelling from consultants and publishes the reports. The January 2026 round included work by Jacobs and by ACIL Allen, both covering 2026 to 2035. Search for “small-scale technology certificate projections” on the CER website and you will find them as PDFs, with scenarios (low, central, high) and the assumptions behind installation numbers.
The Quarterly Carbon Market Report, released each quarter, is the plain-English companion. Its Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme section gives year-to-date creations, the full-year estimate, battery installation volumes, and commentary on the STC spot price against the $40 clearing house ceiling.
STC registrations by month
The CER also publishes registration and creation data by month on its website, split by technology: solar PV, solar water heaters, heat pumps and batteries. It is the best source for watching a trend rather than a quarterly snapshot. If a month spikes, check whether it is a policy deadline (a factor step or a deeming change) pulling installs forward.
What this means for installers
A shrinking STP is the system working as designed: as the scheme heads to its end on 31 December 2030, fewer certificates are created per job. Spot prices have sat roughly $38 to $40 at the time of writing, against a $40 clearing house ceiling. See the STC trading pillar for how that plays out, today’s rates for what we publish, and how STC pricing works.