Four questions get asked in different ways: how many batteries have been installed, did demand surge, are installs slowing after May, and how long is the wait. They are one story.
The numbers, as reported
The program started on 1 July 2025. Government announcements put installations at 200,000 by about six months in, over 250,000 by March 2026, more than 400,000 by May 2026 and more than 500,000 by August 2026. One summary reported 284,580 batteries installed in the ten months to May 2026, more than all the batteries installed in Australia before the program. These figures are as reported by the government and trade press; the Clean Energy Regulator publishes the underlying data.
Why demand surged
A large upfront discount, falling hardware prices, high electricity bills and a strong rooftop solar base made batteries an easy decision. The discount was largest at the start (factor 9.3), and the program had no tiering on very large batteries, so oversized systems were common. Some analysts pointed out that oversizing inflated program cost.
What changed in May
From 1 May 2026 the factor dropped to 6.8 and the sizing tiers began, so the first 14 kWh earns 100 percent, 14 to 28 kWh earns 60 percent and 28 to 50 kWh earns 15 percent. That removes the reward for oversizing. It is reasonable to expect a pull-forward of installs before the change and a shift to 10 to 14 kWh systems afterwards. Whether total volume has slowed is something to check against current CER installation data rather than a headline. The next step down is on 1 January 2027, which may cause another rush in the last months of 2026. See the May changes.
Wait times
Wait times depend on the installer’s capacity, the region, stock of the brand you want and the electrical approvals your network needs. Busy periods before a factor step lengthen queues. If an installer promises an install date, get it in writing, because the factor depends on the installation date, not the contract date.
What this means for installers
A surge means more jobs than back-office hands. The risks are discount cash outlay, rushed photos and late lodgement. Build a weekly lodgement routine, check each pack against the battery photo guide, and use a buyer that settles fast to keep cash moving; see battery rebate installer cash flow.
From the desk: the last quarter before a factor step is when claims arrive in bulk and mistakes creep in. Slow down on evidence, not on volume.
Read the scheme on battery STCs, the installer guide, and check the battery STC calculator for your size.