The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, which creates STCs for rooftop solar, batteries and eligible hot water systems, is legislated to end on 31 December 2030, and no replacement has been legislated at the time of writing. That is the whole of what is known. What follows 2030 is a policy decision still to be made, and anyone who tells you with confidence what the next incentive will look like is guessing.
What can be said is useful anyway. The end date is fixed and the glide path to it is published. Certificates created before the end date remain valid. The reasons the scheme was designed to sunset, and the pressures that will shape any successor, are visible now. This guide separates the facts from the speculation, and gives you a way to plan that works under either outcome.
What is fixed
- End date. 31 December 2030. Systems installed up to that date can create certificates, subject to the Clean Energy Regulator’s rules on creation timing, which you should confirm with the regulator’s guidance.
- The deeming glide path. 5 years for 2026 installs, 4 for 2027, 3 for 2028, 2 for 2029, 1 for 2030.
- Zone ratings. 1.622, 1.536, 1.382 and 1.185.
- The STC clearing house. A fixed $40 price at which the regulator buys certificates.
- The battery factor path. 6.8 per kWh for 2026 installs, 5.7 from 1 January 2027, 5.2 from 1 July 2027, then stepping down every six months to 2030.
Why the scheme ends
The scheme was built as part of the Renewable Energy Target to bring forward rooftop solar until it could stand without a subsidy. Rooftop solar has since become one of the cheapest sources of household energy. The declining deeming period is the mechanism that phases the subsidy out. The battery program follows the same logic, with a factor that falls year by year.
What happens to certificates created before the end
Certificates that exist at the end date remain valid instruments. They can be sold or surrendered. The clearing house is intended to guarantee a buyer at $40 while the scheme runs; what happens at the margins after the end date is for the regulator to specify, so do not assume the clearing house stays open indefinitely. The practical advice is the same as always: create, lodge and sell your certificates promptly rather than stockpiling them as a bet on later prices.
What a successor could look like
This is speculation, labelled as such. The policy options discussed publicly for supporting household electrification fall into a few families.
| Option | How it could work | Consequence for installers |
|---|---|---|
| Extension of the existing mechanism | Keep creating certificates for batteries or other products | Continuity, but with a new schedule |
| Direct budget support | Grants or rebates paid by government | Different cash flow and admin |
| Tariff and market reform | Pay households for services such as flexibility | Revenue shifts to VPPs and retailers |
| Mandates and standards | Building rules requiring solar, batteries or heat pumps | Demand without a rebate |
| No successor | The market runs without subsidy | Price and service competition |
Each has different implications. None is legislated. State schemes, such as Victorian Energy Upgrades (extended to 2045) and the NSW Energy Savings and Peak Demand Reduction Schemes, show that state-level certificate mechanisms can outlast the federal one, and they may be where installer opportunity concentrates.
What it means for homeowners
For a household deciding whether to install solar, the question is not whether the scheme will be extended but whether the system pays back without it. Rooftop solar’s economics depend on your usage, tariffs and system price. The certificate is a discount on the upfront cost that shrinks each year. Run the payback with this year’s certificate and again with zero; if it still works with zero, the 2030 end date is not a reason to rush or to delay.
What it means for installers
Installers should assume no replacement and treat any successor as upside. That means building revenue from batteries, hot water, service and upgrades, and from state-based mechanisms such as VEECs where you operate in Victoria. It also means tightening operations so that smaller per-job certificate values do not turn rejected claims into losses. See our guide on what happens to installers when the scheme ends for a revenue model.
The 2030 rush
Expect the last 12 months to be busy. Demand tends to rise as a deadline nears, and claim volumes follow. Regulators and traders are likely to see pressure on processing times, evidence quality and audit activity. If you plan to install in 2030, set your date early, and ask your installer how they will manage a high-volume year. The same logic applies to installers: your process has to hold up at twice the usual volume.
Signals to watch between now and 2030
Because nothing has been legislated, the useful habit is watching for the right signals. A bill or exposure draft amending the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act is a strong signal; a ministerial statement without a bill is a weaker one. The Clean Energy Regulator’s published guidance on the final creation dates tells you how the last year will work in practice. Reviews of the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, including changes announced during 2026, show how government adjusts incentives when uptake is higher than expected. And movements in the STC spot price relative to the $40 clearing house ceiling show whether the market is oversupplied.
For households and installers alike, the sensible stance is to plan on the published glide path and treat any new announcement as an update to be checked against its source.
Questions we hear
Should I install a battery now because of 2030? Not because of 2030 itself. The battery discount steps down every January and July, so the nearer the date the smaller the incentive. If a battery suits your household, the incentive is highest this year. If it does not suit you, a falling discount is not a reason to buy one.
Will the STC price collapse near the end? Nobody knows. The clearing house at $40 sets the ceiling while it operates, and the spot market has been roughly $38 to $40 at the time of writing. Price risk near the end is real but unpredictable, which is another reason to sell certificates when you create them.
What to do next
- Read the dates: deeming period schedule and when the STC scheme ends.
- Model your own business or payback with and without certificates.
- Keep up with the Clean Energy Regulator’s announcements and the pillar page on STC trading; our resources library keeps the glossary and checklists current.
- For a settlement partner whose daily rate is published, see /pricing/.