The federal solar rebate is not a fixed amount that rolls over from year to year. It is a count of certificates that shrinks on a published schedule, multiplied by a market price that is capped at $40. The schedule is the part you can plan around, and it runs out entirely at the end of 2030.
This article puts the 2026 to 2030 schedule in one place, with worked certificate counts for the two most common zones. It uses a constant $38 STC price so that the effect of the schedule is visible, not because we expect the price to stay there. At the time of writing STCs have been roughly $38 to $40 and the clearing house price is $40.
The rule in one line
For small-scale solar, the STC count is system size in kW x the postcode zone rating x the number of deeming years, rounded down. The zone ratings are 1.622, 1.536, 1.382 and 1.185 for zones 1 to 4. The deeming period is five years for 2026 installs, four for 2027, and then falls by one a year to one year in 2030. The scheme ends on 31 December 2030.
The schedule: a 6.6 kW system
| Install year | Deeming years | Zone 3 (1.382): STCs | Zone 3 value at $38 | Zone 4 (1.185): STCs | Zone 4 value at $38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 45 | $1,710 | 39 | $1,482 |
| 2027 | 4 | 36 | $1,368 | 31 | $1,178 |
| 2028 | 3 | 27 | $1,026 | 23 | $874 |
| 2029 | 2 | 18 | $684 | 15 | $570 |
| 2030 | 1 | 9 | $342 | 7 | $266 |
Zone 3 includes Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, the Gold Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong, Cairns and Townsville. Zone 4 includes Melbourne, Geelong, Hobart and Launceston. Darwin is zone 2 and Alice Springs is zone 1. Use the STC calculator for your postcode.
Two things stand out. The count falls by a fixed step each year, so the fall as a percentage gets steeper: from 2029 to 2030 the rebate halves. And the zone matters more as the numbers shrink, because a six-certificate gap between zones in 2026 is a two-certificate gap in 2030.
How it looks against the system price
Take an illustrative installed price of $7,000 before certificates for a 6.6 kW system, held constant for the sake of comparison.
| Install year | STC discount at $38 (zone 3) | Share of a $7,000 price |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,710 | 24% |
| 2027 | $1,368 | 20% |
| 2028 | $1,026 | 15% |
| 2029 | $684 | 10% |
| 2030 | $342 | 5% |
The system price will not stay at $7,000, because panel and installation costs move. But the share is a useful way to see that, by 2030, the federal discount is a footnote on a solar quote, where in 2026 it is about a quarter. See our answer on how much the solar rebate drops each year.
Batteries run on a different schedule
The Cheaper Home Batteries Program has its own step-down, every six months. The verified factors are 6.8 for May to December 2026, 5.7 for January to June 2027 and 5.2 for July to December 2027, continuing down to 2030. Say it as “6.8 at the time of writing, stepping down to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027”. We do not quote factors beyond 2027 because they are set by the program, so check the Department’s page.
Tiers also apply: since 1 May 2026, the first 14 kWh earn at 100 percent of the factor, 14 to 28 kWh at 60 percent and 28 to 50 kWh at 15 percent. A 13.8 kWh battery creates 93 STCs at 6.8 and 78 at 5.7, a loss of 15 certificates, about $570 at $38. See the January 2027 battery drop.
What stays fixed
- The ceiling. The STC Clearing House price is $40, so the price cannot sustainably exceed it.
- Mid-scale solar. Systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 create STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period, so they do not step down yearly in the way small systems do. Applications open mid to late November 2026, and the pillar page is mid-scale solar STCs.
- The end date. 31 December 2030 for the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme.
What the schedule means for decisions
For a homeowner, waiting costs certificates. A zone 3 household that installs in 2027 rather than 2026 loses nine STCs, about $342. Waiting for a price drop in panels may or may not make up for it, so do the sum. See should I buy solar before 2027.
For an installer, the schedule is a planning tool. If your average job creates 45 certificates now, plan for 36 next year at the same volume. That is a fall of 20 percent in certificate value per job, and it is predictable.
From the desk: quote the year, not just the rebate. A quote dated in late 2026 for an install in 2027 should use the 2027 count. We see quotes that carry a 2026 STC count into a 2027 install, and the shortfall lands on the installer when the claim is calculated.
For installers: lodge dates and the calendar
The count is based on the installation date, not the quote date or the lodgement date. A system commissioned on 30 December earns the old count, and one commissioned on 2 January earns the new one. Your commissioning checklist should record the date clearly, and the photos, compliance certificate and claim must agree on it. See what changes in January and the deeming period guide.
Hot water and other products on the same clock
The solar PV schedule above is the most visible one, but hot water follows the same direction. Heat pumps and solar water heaters create STCs on a deeming period that runs to the end of the scheme in 2030, so the count for a given model falls each year. Batteries have their own six-monthly factor steps. A household planning a combined upgrade, say solar, a battery and a heat pump, should price each element for its own install year rather than assuming one date applies to all. Our answers on when the solar rebate ends and whether the rebate ends in 2030 cover the end-of-scheme question for customers.
What to do next
- Use the table above with your zone and system size.
- Check your quote template for the right year’s deeming count.
- Read the broader policy pieces: the scheme wind-down explained and the Renewable Energy Target to 2030.
- For the scheme-change pillar see /stc-trading/scheme-changes/, and for today’s rate see our pricing page.