Victoria is the one state where a heat pump hot water job can be touched by three separate incentives, and 2026 has moved the numbers under all three. The federal STC price has held close to the clearing house ceiling. The Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) certificate price has been far higher than the federal one. And the household income cap on the Solar Victoria rebate dropped on 1 July.
We already explain how the three layers fit together in the heat pump rebate stack. This article takes a different cut: what changed in 2026, and how the best combination differs by household. It describes mechanisms and tells you where to check the figures that belong to the state. At the time of writing, the VEEC and Solar Victoria amounts depend on the activity, the product and the date.
What moved in 2026
- STCs. The spot market has been roughly $38 to $40, with the clearing house at $40. Deeming for hot water runs to 2030, so the count per unit falls as the scheme runs down.
- VEECs. The Essential Services Commission runs VEU. Spot has been roughly $85 to $95 in 2026 with a record near $110, and reported at about $85 to $90 in September. See why VEEC prices are high.
- Solar Victoria. The household income cap fell to $150,000 on 1 July 2026, so some households that qualified last year no longer do. See the cap explained.
Prices move daily, so use the published ones on the day you sign.
Three households, three different outcomes
The figures below are illustrations of structure, not price guides. The unit is a heat pump with an installed price of $4,500 before incentives, and an assumed 25 STCs at $39.
Household A: replacing an old electric storage tank, income under $150,000
This household can potentially use all three layers: STCs, a VEEC discount from an accredited provider and the Solar Victoria rebate, subject to the product list and activity rules.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Installed price | $4,500 |
| STC discount (25 x $39) | -$975 |
| VEEC discount (example: 8 VEECs at about $87) | -$696 |
| Solar Victoria rebate (example, if eligible) | -$1,000 |
| Price paid | $1,829 |
The VEEC count and the Solar Victoria amount here are examples, because they are set by the activity rules and the state. The structure is what matters: three separate lines, each from a different place.
Household B: replacing a gas system, income above $150,000
The household no longer meets the Solar Victoria income test, so that layer drops out. STCs and a VEEC discount may still apply.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Installed price | $4,500 |
| STC discount | -$975 |
| VEEC discount (example) | -$696 |
| Price paid | $2,829 |
The gap between A and B is $1,000, entirely down to the income cap. Gas-to-electric conversions have their own conditions in the VEU activity, so ask your installer whether this particular replacement qualifies.
Household C: new build or a unit that fails the replacement test
If the job counts as a new installation rather than a replacement, the VEU activity may not apply, and the STC count follows the new-system rules. Whether this applies depends on the dwelling and the evidence. Read the installation type guide before the old system comes out, because you cannot reclassify afterwards.
Which certificate matters most
VEECs are worth more each than STCs, but a quote cannot be judged on that alone. The totals depend on how many certificates the job creates, and the VEEC count follows the activity specification, not a simple formula. A home with a low-count VEEC activity can find the STCs larger than the VEEC line. Compare quotes on the net price after all incentives, with each line itemised. If you are comparing a heat pump with a heat pump plus solar PV, see VEECs and STCs on the same job for the logic.
What a Victorian installer needs
For the STC layer, a registered model and the usual paperwork. For the VEEC layer, an accredited person under VEU, or a relationship with a provider who is one. For Solar Victoria, authorisation as an installer or retailer for rebate jobs. See Solar Victoria installer approval. The evidence overlaps, so collect it once:
- Photos of the old unit and its compliance plate before removal
- Photos of the new unit, plate and serial number
- Signed assignment form and any VEU customer consent
- Plumbing and electrical compliance certificates
- Geo-tagged photos that match the install address
From the desk: in a stacked Victorian job, a single weak photo can undermine two certificate claims at once. Photograph the old system before it moves, and name the files by job number. The old unit is the evidence for the replacement, and it exists only once.
Timing risks in 2026
- VEEC price swing. VEEC prices have moved between the $85 range and a record near $110 in recent months. A quote that assumes one price can be wrong by hundreds of dollars on a job by the time it lodges. Prefer a trader that locks the rate when you lodge a complete claim.
- The 1 January step. The STC count for the same unit falls as deeming shortens. If a customer is on the fence, tell them that waiting can cost certificates.
- Rebate cap changes. State programs can alter eligibility with little notice, so quote with an expiry date.
For installers
If you do Victorian hot water, run STCs and VEECs through a single workflow so evidence is gathered once. Our VEEC trading and hot water STCs pages explain how each stream is settled, and the pricing page shows the published rates. The VEEC answer for heat pumps covers activity conditions.
A short note on gas households
Some Victorian households replacing a gas system are doing it as part of moving off gas entirely. That can change the electrical work, because a heat pump needs a suitable circuit, and it can change which VEU activity applies. If the customer is also considering rooftop solar, the heat pump can be sized into the same project, which spreads electrical costs. Ask your installer to show both the heat pump and any switchboard work as separate lines, so you can see where the incentives apply and where they do not. For a comparison of the state rebate and the VEU discount, see VEU versus Solar Victoria.
A fair check on any Victorian quote
Add up the lines. If the installed price, minus the three incentive lines, does not equal the price you are asked to pay, something has been left out or double counted. If the VEEC line is far larger than the others, ask which activity it is claimed under and who the accredited provider is. A good installer can answer both in a sentence, and will put the answer in writing.
What to do next
- Check which of the three layers applies to your household using the scenarios above.
- Ask for a quote that lists each incentive separately, with the certificate count and price used.
- Photograph the old system before removal.
- For the national overview, see which hot water systems are eligible and the hot water pillar at /hot-water/.
For the wider hot water picture, see the hot water hub.