The first of July is the day Australian governments tend to reset programs, and the first of July 2026 was no exception. It was also a day on which a number of things people expected to change did not. This piece separates the two, because customers and installers have been quoting the wrong version of events.
The facts below are as at early October 2026. Where a detail is reported rather than verified, we say so, and for any dollar figure you should check the scheme’s official page.
What did not change: the federal battery factor
Many people assumed the Cheaper Home Batteries Program factor stepped on 1 July. It did not. The factor was 8.4 from January to April 2026, stepped to 6.8 on 1 May 2026 (alongside the new tiers), and stays at 6.8 through December 2026. The next steps are 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027. For a 14 kWh battery that is 95 STCs now, 79 from January and 72 from July 2027. If a customer quoted a “July drop” to you, it is the wrong date. See our round-up of 2026 changes for the full schedule.
The small-scale solar deeming period also did not change mid-year. It is 5 years for installs in calendar 2026 and 4 for 2027. A 6.6 kW system in zone 3 creates 45 STCs this year, and the financial year makes no difference.
What did change: Solar Victoria’s income cap
On 1 July 2026 the household income cap for the Solar Victoria rebate fell to $150,000. Households above that income no longer qualify. That cuts the pool of eligible customers, and for Victorian installers it changes who you can offer the rebate to. Read the income cap answer and the wider Solar Victoria changes piece for the current rules, and check Solar Victoria’s own page for the current rebate amounts and eligibility before quoting.
A practical effect: Victorian customers who previously relied on the rebate to make the numbers work will now see a larger up-front price. STCs still apply regardless of the Solar Victoria rebate.
NSW: scheme updates at the start of the financial year
NSW scheme changes usually take effect at the start of the financial year. For the Energy Savings Scheme (ESS), reported 2026 changes include:
- The commercial lighting method closing on 31 March 2026
- Gas-fired boilers, gas-boosted water heaters and gas space heaters being excluded from 1 July 2026
- A longer assumed lifetime for air conditioning, lifting the ESCs created for those activities
These are reported changes. Read the NSW Energy Sustainability Schemes page for the rule text and effective dates before you act. For the Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS), the home battery incentive (BESS1) was suspended from 1 July 2025 after the federal program started, and a NSW commercial battery incentive began from 1 September 2026 (reported). Our NSW ESS 2026 changes article goes deeper.
What did not change: STC price drivers
The financial year does not govern the STC market. STC demand is set by the small-scale technology percentage, which is a calendar-year number (11.67% for 2026), and the price is held under the $40 clearing house ceiling. At the time of writing, the spot has been roughly $38 to $40. Nothing on 1 July moved it.
A table to keep on the wall
| Item | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Battery factor 6.8 | 1 May 2026 | In force until 31 Dec 2026 |
| Battery factor 5.7 | 1 Jan 2027 | Scheduled |
| Battery factor 5.2 | 1 Jul 2027 | Scheduled |
| Solar deeming 5 to 4 years | 1 Jan 2027 | Scheduled |
| Solar Victoria income cap $150,000 | 1 Jul 2026 | In force |
| Mid-scale solar STCs (above 100 kW to 1 MW) | 1 Oct 2026 | In force; applications open mid to late Nov 2026 |
The last row is worth a second look. The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme now extends to mid-scale solar for systems installed from 1 October 2026, with a fixed five-year deeming period. Systems up to 100 kW are unaffected, and above 1 MW remains LGCs. See mid-scale solar and STCs.
From the desk: Check the date a customer is quoting you against the table. In the last few months we have seen quotes promising a “1 July battery discount” that never existed. If your own quote gives a date, make sure it is the install date that controls it, and write that in.
Questions customers asked us in July
“I signed in June. Which rules apply?” For STCs, the install date and the rules on that date apply. A contract signed in June and installed in September earns certificates under the September factor and deeming period. For a state program, check whether the scheme looks at the contract date, the install date or the lodgement date, because they differ.
“Is it cheaper to wait until the new financial year?” For federal certificates, no. Nothing resets in July, and the next scheduled step is 1 January 2027. Waiting only costs money, because the factor and the deeming period move in one direction.
“Why does my neighbour in another state get a different deal?” State schemes differ widely. Victoria has VEECs and Solar Victoria. NSW has ESCs and PRCs. WA has its own battery scheme that requires VPP participation. Federal STCs are the one layer everyone shares, with the only regional difference being the zone rating (zone 3 for Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra, zone 4 for Melbourne and Hobart).
Why the date confusion happens
July is when most budgets and state schemes reset, so people assume everything does. It also helps that earlier federal steps landed on odd dates, such as 1 May 2026 for the tiers and the 6.8 factor. A rule of thumb: treat each scheme’s own notice as the only reliable source for its date, and treat any date quoted in an advertisement as a prompt to check, not a fact.
Why 1 July matters for cash flow
Some installers run their business on a financial-year rhythm: new price lists, new supplier terms, new subcontract rates. If you reset your own pricing on 1 July, make sure the STC value in your quote is calculated from the current deeming period and factor, not last year’s. A quote that assumes last year’s certificate count overstates the discount, and the gap is yours to carry.
A second cash-flow point is GST and invoicing. Certificate sales to a trader are usually handled with a recipient-created tax invoice (RCTI), and an ABN is required. If you have changed entity structure at the financial year turnover, make sure your trader has the new details. Our RCTI, GST and ABN guide covers it.
What to do next
- Re-check every pending quote against the table above
- Confirm any Victorian quote against the $150,000 cap
- Read the scheme pages for NSW and Victoria before quoting state items
- Run the numbers in the STC calculator and see the battery calculator
- See today’s rate on pricing, and bookmark the scheme changes hub