The NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) changes more often than the federal STC rules, and the changes tend to arrive in clusters: a rule amendment, then a method guide update, then a market reaction. For installers who create Energy Savings Certificates (ESCs), keeping up is part of the job. This is a summary of the 2026 changes as reported at the time of writing, with the places to confirm each one. It is a guide, not the rule text.
The big picture
The ESS and the Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) sit together under what NSW calls the Energy Security Safeguard. The 2025 rule change process, set out in a position paper released in August 2025, produced a set of method updates and consumer protections that have flowed through 2026. The pattern is consistent: close or tighten activities where the savings are marginal, lift the benefit where the technology has improved, and protect customers from aggressive selling.
The reported changes
| Change | Reported timing | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial lighting method ends | 31 March 2026 | Installs must be complete and ESCs registered by that date |
| Gas-fired boilers (steam and hot water), gas-boosted water heaters and gas space heaters excluded | 1 July 2026 | No ESCs for these activities from that date |
| Air conditioning lifetime raised from 10 to 12 years | 2026 | About a 20% uplift to ESCs created for eligible activities |
| Air conditioning activity updates | 1 July 2026 | Changes to multi-split and large air conditioner eligibility, commercial heat pump water heaters, liquid chilling package lifetimes and co-payments |
| Door-knocking ban | 12 September 2025 | No unsolicited door-knocking to market upgrades under the ESS or PDRS |
Everything in this table is as reported. Check the Energy Sustainability Schemes page for the current method guides before relying on it, because rule dates and drafting details are exactly what trips people up.
Commercial lighting: what the end means
A method with a closing date creates a rush, then a cliff. Installers who delivered lighting upgrades in the weeks before 31 March 2026 created certificates at volume. After that date the activity stopped producing ESCs. Reported market commentary saw the ESC spot price lift from about $22.90 to about $23.75 on the announcement, consistent with supply being removed. If you work in commercial lighting, your certificate income from that method is gone, and the question is what replaces it in your pipeline.
Gas activities
From 1 July 2026 the scheme excludes gas-fired boilers, gas-boosted water heaters and gas space heaters. The policy direction is plain: public certificate money no longer supports new gas equipment. If you quote gas equipment for NSW customers, do not include ESC value in the price. If you are shifting to electric alternatives, heat pump hot water and efficient heating remain the natural next step. Our heat pump STC explainer and the NSW answer on heat pump rebates and ESCs are good starting points.
Air conditioning: more certificates per job
A longer lifetime assumption raises the number of ESCs per eligible air conditioning installation, by about 20% on a 10 to 12 year change. At an ESC price in the low to mid $20s (reported), a job that created 30 ESCs now creates 36, about $140 more at $23. Co-payment and eligibility changes from 1 July 2026 also matter, so read the method guide for the exact product categories.
Consumer protections
Since 12 September 2025 both schemes prohibit unsolicited door-knocking to market upgrades. The aim is to stop high-pressure selling, which had damaged the schemes’ reputation. If your sales model includes door-knocking in NSW, it needs to change. Lead generation through referrals, enquiries and advertising is the safe route. Treat the wording of the prohibition as something to read directly rather than rely on a summary.
What these changes do to price
Rule changes move prices through supply and demand. Removing activities (lighting, gas) reduces supply and tends to support the ESC price. Adding uplift (air conditioning lifetime) increases supply per job and tends to soften it. The net effect depends on volumes, and no one can forecast it cleanly. Our ESC price history article sets out how to read the moves, and our answer on ESC prices in NSW gives the starting point.
From the desk: For each activity you sell in NSW, keep a one-line record of the method name, the version of the guide you used and the date you checked it. When a rule changes mid-quarter, that record tells you which jobs fall under which version, and it is the first thing an auditor asks for.
ESS versus PDRS: a quick map
The ESS rewards energy savings and creates ESCs. The PDRS rewards peak demand reduction and creates PRCs. Heat pump hot water, air conditioning and commercial projects sit mostly in the ESS. Batteries and demand response sit in the PDRS, though the home battery incentive (BESS1) was suspended from 1 July 2025 after the federal program began. See why PRC prices dropped for the other half of the story.
Becoming and staying an ACP
Creating ESCs normally means working with, or becoming, an Accredited Certificate Provider (ACP). The accreditation carries obligations, including record keeping and audit readiness. If you are considering it, our answer on becoming an ACP in NSW sets out the steps. Many installers choose to assign certificates to a trader that holds accreditation and manages the registry, which removes that overhead.
A short compliance routine
- Check the Energy Sustainability Schemes change page monthly
- Record which method version applies to each job
- Keep customer consent and installation records together
- Confirm the activity is still eligible on the install date
- Never promise a customer an incentive you have not confirmed that week
Worked example: an air conditioning job after the uplift
An eligible air conditioning installation that created 30 ESCs under a 10 year lifetime creates about 36 ESCs under a 12 year lifetime (30 x 12 / 10). At $23 an ESC, the certificate value rises from $690 to $828, a difference of $138 per job. Across a month of 40 such jobs, that is $5,520. The real counts depend on the product, its capacity and the method, so use the method guide’s calculator or your accredited provider’s figures, not our arithmetic, for any quote.
What to tell customers
NSW customers hear about “rebates” without the detail of how they are delivered. For ESS activities the benefit is usually a discount at the point of sale, funded by the ESCs the installer or provider creates. Be clear that the discount depends on the activity being eligible on the install date, and that rules can change. If a customer has been told that a gas appliance qualifies, and you are installing it after 1 July 2026, check the current method before you confirm.
What to do next
- Check each NSW activity you sell against the current method guide
- Update quotes to remove lighting and gas ESC value
- Read how ESC trading works and how fast NSW ESC payment should be
- Browse the ESCs and PRCs pillar, and see pricing and how it works