People search for the STC price month by month: November 2026, December 2026, January 2027. The honest answer is that no one publishes a trustworthy forward price, but the structure of the market tells you what can and cannot move.
What is fixed
The Clean Energy Regulator’s STC clearing house will buy certificates at $40, so no one with a valid certificate needs to accept less than that in the long run, subject to the clearing house’s queue and fees. That makes $40 the practical ceiling. The spot market has been roughly $38 to $40 at the time of writing, and trader rates sit below spot to cover costs and risk. See the spot price versus the clearing house price.
What moves it
- Supply. In a year of record installs the market is well supplied, which keeps the price a little under the ceiling.
- Timing of creation. Installers lodge heavily before known step-downs. The battery factor falls from 6.8 to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and the solar deeming period from 5 to 4 years, so supply can bunch in late 2026 and drop away in January.
- Demand. Retailers need STCs for the STP obligation; the 2026 STP has been reported at about 11.67%.
- Policy. Any change to scheme rules is the real risk. See the market and policy hub.
Month by month: what to expect
| Month | What to watch |
|---|---|
| November 2026 | Pre-year-end rush; mid-scale STC applications reported to open mid to late November |
| December 2026 | Peak lodgement before the factor and deeming step-downs |
| January 2027 | Fewer STCs per job; spot generally follows supply and demand, with $40 still the ceiling |
These are patterns, not predictions.
The thing that does change on 1 January
A 6.6 kW system in zone 3 creates about 45 STCs in 2026 and about 36 in 2027, so the rebate on the quote falls roughly a fifth even if the price per STC does not move. For batteries, a 13.5 kWh battery falls from about 91 to 76 STCs. See what changes on 1 January and the calculators.
How to talk to customers about timing
Customers hear that the rebate falls on 1 January and assume the price of each certificate drops. Explain that the per-certificate market price has been steady near the ceiling and that the change is in how many certificates a system earns. Show the two quote scenarios side by side. That honesty tends to build trust and speeds decisions without pressure tactics.
What this means for you
Use a published rate that you can hold the trader to. Energy Merchants publishes its buy rate daily on pricing and locks it when a complete claim is lodged. Read how much an STC is worth, STC trading and how it works.