People searching for an “SRES review”, “SRES cap changes” or “SRES budget” in 2026 are usually asking the same thing: what is different this year, and what should I plan around? Here is the picture at the time of writing (3 October 2026).
Deeming period and the five-year step
For solar installed in 2026 the deeming period is five years. It drops to four years for 2027 and keeps stepping down to one year in 2030, when the scheme ends on 31 December. A 6.6 kW system in zone 3 earns about 45 STCs in 2026 and about 36 in 2027. The deeming pillar page has the full table, and the 2027 insight covers January.
The 100 kW cap and mid-scale solar
Until now, small-scale solar was capped at 100 kW, and anything bigger earned LGCs. That has changed. Under amended regulations, solar above 100 kW and up to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 creates STCs with a fixed five-year deeming period. The Clean Energy Regulator says applications open in mid to late November 2026. Below 100 kW nothing changes, and above 1 MW remains LGC territory. Our mid-scale solar STC page explains how to choose between the two. LGCs have been oversupplied and cheap in 2026, roughly $6 to $9 in September, which is one reason the change matters commercially.
Budget: where the money is
There is no fixed budget for the rooftop solar STC; retailers buy certificates to meet their obligation and the clearing house ceiling is $40, with the spot market at roughly $38 to $40. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program is different. As reported, its funding was expanded from $2.3bn to $7.2bn. The battery factor steps down every six months: 6.8 at the time of writing, 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027. Since 1 May 2026 the first 14 kWh earns 100 per cent of the factor, 14 to 28 kWh earns 60 per cent and 28 to 50 kWh earns 15 per cent. See the 2026 battery rebate.
Evidence and compliance
New battery photo and evidence rules applied from 1 March 2026, and audits remain active. Read how STC audits work.
What this means for installers
Plan around the calendar, not the news cycle: certificate quantities are set on the installation date. Use the STC calculator and battery calculator, and look at pricing to see the current rate for what you create. If you have commercial jobs in the 100 kW to 1 MW range, speak to us before lodging via start trading.
Common questions
Is there a formal review under way? At the time of writing, we are not aware of a published SRES review that changes the 2030 end date; follow Clean Energy Regulator and DCCEEW announcements. Will the STC price change with the mid-scale extension? Possibly, because more certificates may enter the market; treat any forecast as a view, not a fact, and check pricing for the live rate.