People ask this three ways: is the solar rebate ending, is it ending in 2030, and when does the SRES end. They have the same answer, which has two parts: a slow shrink now, and a hard stop at the end of 2030.
The shrink: the deeming period
The rebate on rooftop solar is a point-of-sale discount made of STCs. The number of STCs is the system’s kW, multiplied by a zone rating and by the deeming period, which is the number of years of generation counted up front. The deeming period falls by a year on 1 January each year:
| Install year | Deeming period |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 years |
| 2027 | 4 years |
| 2028 | 3 years |
| 2029 | 2 years |
| 2030 | 1 year |
So the rebate does not vanish; it declines by roughly a fifth of its 2026 value each January. See the 2027 impact answer.
The stop: 31 December 2030
The scheme as legislated ends on 31 December 2030. A system installed after that date creates no small-scale technology certificates, so there is no STC discount at the point of sale. Policy can change, so the Clean Energy Regulator and the Department are the sources to check for any amendment.
What happens to STCs after 2030
- STCs created before the end of 2030 remain valid and can be traded. How long the market keeps buying them depends on the demand and clearing-house arrangements at the time.
- Liable entities, mainly electricity retailers, have surrender obligations that run through the life of the scheme, so there is still a buyer for certificates created up to the end.
- After the scheme ends, rooftop solar economics rest on electricity savings and export tariffs alone.
- Mid-scale solar (above 100 kW and up to 1 MW) was brought into the scheme for installs from 1 October 2026, with a fixed five-year deeming period. See the mid-scale solar STCs pillar.
Does the market price fall as the scheme runs down
At the time of writing STC spot is roughly $38 to $40 against a clearing-house ceiling of $40. Over the scheme’s life the price depends on supply and demand, which includes how many systems are installed each year and the liability set by government. Nothing in the legislation guarantees a floor.
What this means for installers and customers
Installers should show the date and deeming period on every quote and give customers a fair view of timing. Customers weighing up now or later should compare the lost STCs with price trends and what the system will save. The STC calculator shows the number for a given postcode, the scheme changes page tracks the rules, and the 2027 deeming insight covers January. For what certificates settle for, see pricing and STC trading.