The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, known as the SRES, is the federal program that creates STCs. It is legislated to end on 31 December 2030. After that date no new STCs can be created for installations, so the discount that has sat in the price of nearly every Australian rooftop system since 2001 disappears. For installers that is four years of runway, and every one of them is shorter than the last.
The scheme does not end with a cliff, though. It ends with a ramp, because the deeming period drops by a year every January. That makes this a planning problem you can see coming and put numbers on. This article sets out what the ramp does to revenue per job, what stays the same and how crews are positioning for 2030 and beyond.
Why it ends in 2030
The SRES sits inside the Renewable Energy Target. The original design set a finish line at 2030 and credited each system for the electricity it would produce up to that date, up to a maximum of 15 years. That is why the deeming period shrinks: the closer to 2030, the fewer years of future generation are left to credit. It is not a policy cut that could be reversed with a single decision. It is built into the formula. For the formula in detail, see deeming period and zone ratings.
At the time of writing, there is no announced extension. Planning on the legislated date is prudent, and any change would be announced by the government and the Clean Energy Regulator.
The revenue curve per job
Take a 6.6 kW system in zone 3, zone rating 1.382, with STCs valued at $39 (STC spot has been roughly $38 to $40 at the time of writing).
| Install year | Deeming years | STCs | Value at $39 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 45 | $1,755 |
| 2027 | 4 | 36 | $1,404 |
| 2028 | 3 | 27 | $1,053 |
| 2029 | 2 | 18 | $702 |
| 2030 | 1 | 9 | $351 |
| 2031 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
The drop is a steady $351 a year per system, which is the value of nine STCs. It is a smooth, predictable ramp. If you quote 20 systems a month, your certificate income falls by about $7,000 a month each January, all else equal.
What does not change
Several things stay the same through the ramp:
- The zone ratings of 1.622, 1.536, 1.382 and 1.185 are fixed.
- The STC price is set by the market. At the time of writing the clearing house ceiling is $40, and spot has been roughly $38 to $40. As the volume of new STCs falls, the supply and demand picture will move, but the ceiling does not.
- Your obligations to create accurate claims stay the same. The photo requirements and audit rules do not relax as the scheme winds down.
- Hot water and heat pump certificates follow their own method but also end with the scheme. See hot water STCs.
What it does to your business model
An installer whose margin comes partly from the STC discount faces a shrinking pool. There are three ways that gets absorbed:
- The customer pays more. The headline price to the household rises by the lost discount, partly offset by falling equipment prices.
- The installer earns less. Margins compress, and the weakest operators drop out.
- The system gets bigger or better. A larger system, or one bundled with a battery, spreads fixed costs and lifts the job value.
Most crews end up with a mix. The crews that handle the ramp best tend to treat each January as a pricing event and each year as a new cost base.
Where batteries and other work fit
The Cheaper Home Batteries Program has its own STC factor, 6.8 per kWh for 2026 installs, stepping down to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and 5.2 on 1 July 2027 (the factor now steps every six months to 2030). The same ramp pattern applies, so a solar-only business gradually becomes a solar-and-battery business, with an additional certificate stream. See the battery STCs page and the Cheaper Home Batteries Program installer guide.
Hot water and heat pump work is also worth a look. Replacement jobs have a different demand pattern from new solar, and the VEEC and ESC schemes add state-based incentives that do not end in 2030. Victorian Energy Upgrades and the NSW schemes run on their own timetables, so crews in those states have more continuity.
From the desk: the year the incentive looks smallest on paper is often the year crews are most tempted to cut corners on documentation to save time. Do not. The evidence rules and audit risk do not scale down with the certificate count, so the cost of a failed or clawed-back claim becomes a larger share of a smaller discount. Pre-checking every claim matters more, not less, as the numbers shrink.
A four-year planning checklist
- Model each year. Build a simple sheet with jobs per month, STCs per job from the table and the price per STC, so you can see revenue by year.
- Set a pricing rule. Decide in advance how much of each January’s reduction you pass on to the customer, and communicate it.
- Grow adjacent lines. Batteries, heat pumps, EV chargers and commercial solar all have different incentive timelines.
- Protect cash flow. The same job pays less certificate money later in the scheme. A trader that settles quickly protects the working capital you need. The STC trading page and how it works show how a claim moves.
- Keep a clean book. Claims with complete evidence are cheaper to process and more likely to clear first time. The top STC claim rejection reasons list the common traps.
What happens to the market after 2030
No one can say with certainty. What we can say is what the legislation says: the SRES stops creating certificates for installations after 31 December 2030. The Large-scale Renewable Energy Target is also due to finish at 2030, so the LGC market will have its own transition, a question covered in our piece on selling LGCs. State schemes such as VEU and the NSW ESS and PDRS continue under their own rules, and new federal or state programs may take over some of the work. Watch the Clean Energy Regulator and the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water for announcements.
What to do next
- Build the year-by-year revenue sheet using the table above and your own job mix.
- Decide your 2027 pricing before December, not in January.
- Read what changes in January 2027 for the near-term detail.
- Check today’s rate so your sheet uses a live STC value.
- Consider your trader’s payment speed as part of your plan, and start trading when you are ready to settle claims fast.