Solar in 2026 is cheap by historical standards, and the net price homeowners pay has been creeping up for a reason that has nothing to do with panels. The federal discount shrinks every January. For 2026 installs the deeming period is five years, down from six in 2025, so the same system creates about one sixth fewer certificates. Equipment prices have been soft enough to absorb some of that, which is why headline prices look stable. But the cushion is thinner each year.
This is a snapshot of where 2026 pricing sits, what has moved, and how to benchmark a quote you have been handed. For a first-principles breakdown of cost by size, start with how much solar panels cost in Australia. This article is about the year.
The per-watt picture
Installers and comparison sites quote cost per watt of system size, because it lets you compare a 5 kW job with a 10 kW one. Published 2026 averages vary, partly because they use different samples and partly because some include GST and the STC discount and some do not. As a rule of thumb, once the discount is applied and GST included, mainstream residential quotes have clustered at around 70 cents to $1.15 per watt, with larger systems at the lower end.
Here is what that looks like for common sizes:
| Size | At $0.80/W | At $1.00/W | At $1.15/W |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 kW | $4,000 | $5,000 | $5,750 |
| 6.6 kW | $5,280 | $6,600 | $7,590 |
| 10 kW | $8,000 | $10,000 | $11,500 |
These are not quotes. They are a way to see whether a number you have been given is in the market or an outlier. A quote far below the range needs an explanation, and one far above needs a reason.
What changed in 2026
A shorter deeming period. Five years for 2026 installs, so fewer STCs per system than in 2025. A 6.6 kW system in a 1.382 zone creates about 45 certificates now. With six years it would have been about 54. At roughly $38 each, the difference is more than $300 on that job.
Batteries in the mix. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program, from 1 July 2025, has pushed many households to quote solar and a battery together. Bundled quotes can obscure the per-watt solar price, because installers move margin between the lines. Insist on a split price: solar, battery, and each STC line separately. For batteries, the 2026 factor is 6.8 STCs per kWh of usable capacity, falling to 5.7 on 1 January 2027 and to 5.2 on 1 July 2027. Our battery STC pages explain how that works.
Compliance costs. The Clean Energy Regulator’s priorities have kept the pressure on installers to evidence work properly, from attendance to panel validation. That raises overhead for well-run firms, and it is one reason the cheapest quotes can be a warning sign.
State support. Some states have their own schemes. Solar Victoria’s rebate income cap fell to $150,000 on 1 July 2026. Check the official page of your state’s program for the amount currently on offer, as we do not quote state figures here.
Why two quotes can be $2,000 apart
Imagine two quotes for 6.6 kW in the same suburb.
| Quote A | Quote B | |
|---|---|---|
| Price after STC | $4,990 | $6,890 |
| Panels | Unbranded, 10-year warranty | Tier-one, 25-year warranty |
| Inverter | Budget, 5-year warranty | Major brand, 10-year warranty |
| STC rate assumed | $40 | $38 |
| Workmanship warranty | 1 year | 10 years |
| Switchboard | Not included | Included |
Quote A is $1,900 cheaper. It also assumes the maximum STC rate, which the market may not deliver, and leaves out the switchboard, which may be $400 to $1,000. By the time you add the likely extras, the gap is closer to $1,000, and you are comparing different products.
How to benchmark your own quote
- Compute the per-watt price. Divide the net price by system watts. Is it inside the range above?
- Check the STC line. Count the certificates using size x zone x deeming years, then check the rate. At the time of writing the market has been roughly $38 to $40, so a rate well above $40 is a red flag. Use our zone guide.
- Compare equipment. Same panel tier, same inverter tier, or the comparison is meaningless.
- Compare warranties. Product warranty and workmanship warranty are separate things.
- Ask about exclusions. Switchboard, network application, scaffolding.
From the desk: If an installer gives you a price that only holds “if you sign today”, the pressure is the product. The STC rate moves by a dollar or two, not by hundreds of dollars a week. A fair installer will hold a quote for at least a fortnight and tell you how the price would change if the rate moves.
What to expect after 1 January 2027
The deeming period falls to four years, so the same system will create about a fifth fewer certificates than in 2026. Whether the net price rises depends on equipment costs and installer margin. If you have been planning to install, do not rush on the strength of a salesperson’s deadline, but do understand that the discount will not be bigger later. Our guide to what changes in January has the details, and the answer on the solar rebate dropping each year explains the logic.
Where the discount goes
It is worth remembering what the STC discount is: a market-priced certificate that the installer sells to a trader. That is why installers care about how they are paid and why the rate on your quote should be realistic.
Prices by state
Regional differences are real, though smaller than most people expect. Larger cities with more installers tend to have tighter prices because of competition. Regional and remote areas often cost more because of travel and a smaller pool of accredited installers. Zone ratings also change the STC discount: a household in the sunniest zone gets more certificates per kW than one in the lowest zone, which partly offsets other costs. When you compare quotes from friends in other states, compare after adjusting for zone and for any state incentive, or you will draw the wrong conclusion about whether your price is fair.
A note on cheap imports
Prices can look low when installers use panels or inverters that are not on the approved lists. The CER’s Solar Panel Validation Initiative exists to catch claims for unapproved panels, and a system that cannot create STCs loses the discount, which lands on someone. Ask your installer to confirm that the panel and inverter models on the quote are on the current approved lists, and keep that confirmation with your paperwork.
What to do next
- Get at least three itemised quotes and compute per-watt for each
- Ask for the STC count and rate in writing
- Decide whether to bundle a battery, and if so insist on separate lines
- Use the resources hub for background, and read is solar worth it in 2026 for the payback side