Commercial owners often ask what the certificates add to payback. The answer in 2026 is “less than the headline suggests”, and the new mid-scale rule changes the comparison.
LGC revenue, step by step
An LGC is one MWh of eligible generation. A 200 kW system in a sunny zone-3 location might generate around 1,300 to 1,500 kWh per kW per year, so about 260 to 300 MWh.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual generation | about 260 to 300 MWh |
| LGCs created | about 260 to 300 |
| LGC price (Sept 2026 range) | roughly $6 to $9 |
| Annual LGC revenue | about $1,600 to $2,700 |
The LGC price was about $11 at the start of Q4 2025 and touched a low near $4 in February 2026, so treat any figure as a snapshot. See what an LGC is worth and LGC value for a 100 kW system. Accreditation and per-certificate fees reduce the net.
Bill savings dominate
Using the same assumptions, 280 MWh used on site at an illustrative 18 to 25 cents per kWh saves roughly $50,000 to $70,000 a year, but only for the share consumed on site; exported energy earns a far lower rate. A business that uses most of its output gets a payback driven by the tariff, not the certificates.
An illustrative cost for a commercial system is around $1 per watt, which would be about $200,000 for 200 kW (a quote for your site will differ). On those figures, payback from savings alone is roughly three to five years, and LGCs shave only a few weeks.
The mid-scale twist
For a 200 kW system installed from 1 October 2026, the amended regulations let it create STCs instead, with a fixed five-year deeming period. In zone 3: 200 x 1.382 x 5 = about 1,382 STCs, or roughly $52,500 to $55,300 at $38 to $40 at the time of writing. That is a large upfront reduction in net cost, and can cut payback by a year or more. It is not additive to LGCs for the same generation; see claiming LGCs and STCs together and the mid-scale STC page. CER applications open mid to late November 2026.
What this means for you
Get a site-specific yield and load profile, price the system, then add certificates last. Ask your installer whether the project fits the mid-scale STC rule and how the claim will be sold. Energy Merchants publishes rates on pricing; read STC trading or talk to the desk via start trading. The commercial solar hub collects related answers.