The program continues into 2027, but with a smaller factor. From 1 January 2027 batteries earn 5.7 STCs per kWh of usable capacity, down from 6.8, a cut of about 16 per cent, and the factor steps down again to 5.2 on 1 July 2027.
The 2027 numbers
The tiers stay: full factor on the first 14 kWh, 60 per cent on the next 14 kWh, 15 per cent on the next 22 kWh. At a price of $38 to $40 per certificate:
| Usable size | Approx. STCs | Approx. discount |
|---|---|---|
| 10 kWh | 57 | $2,200 to $2,300 |
| 14 kWh | 79 | $3,000 to $3,200 |
| 28 kWh | 127 | $4,800 to $5,100 |
| 50 kWh | 146 | $5,500 to $5,800 |
Certificate prices are a moving market, so treat the dollar column as an illustration.
Waiting or buying now
The rebate will not improve by waiting. The main reasons to hold off would be falling hardware prices, a better VPP offer or a state incentive. The main reasons to move before the end of the year are the higher factor and certainty about the install date. If you sign in November but the install lands in January, the lower factor applies. Ask your installer how firm their date is.
It is also worth checking whether your state has a stacking incentive, which can offset the cut. See the NSW VPP incentive and the WA battery scheme.
Do the two-year comparison
If you are choosing between a 2026 and a 2027 install, compare total cost rather than rebate alone. A roughly $600 smaller discount on a 14 kWh battery has to be weighed against any price change, the months of bill savings you give up by waiting, and any VPP offer that is open now but may not be later.
What this means for you
Work out your payback on the 2027 price, not the 2026 one. The battery STC pillar explains the mechanics, and how it works shows how the certificates become your discount. For the sequence of cuts, see the 1 January 2027 answer.